康德的细分化预言了国际体系的冲突倾向
Kantian fractionalization predicts the conflict propensity of the international system
摘要：
用网络科学的视角和方法研究复杂的社会和政治现象，在政治学和更狭义的国际关系领域的应用等各个领域都取得了丰硕的成果。我们提出了一个新的研究路线，在国际冲突的研究表明，国际体系的多重细分（我们标签康德细分）是一个强大的预测倾向的暴力国家间冲突，系统的稳定性的关键指标。在这样做的时候，我们还展示了第一次使用多片模块化的社区检测在一个多路复用的网络应用程序。即使在控制了既定的系统级冲突指标，我们发现，康德细分有助于模型适合暴力州际冲突比以前建立的措施。此外，评估每个组成网络的影响力表明，联合民主在预测系统稳定性方面发挥的作用很小，如果有的话，从而挑战了国际关系文献的一个主要实证研究结果。最后，一系列的格兰杰因果检验表明，康德细分的时间变异性与国际体系中冲突的流行存在因果关系。这种因果关系具有现实世界的政策含义，因为康德细分的变化可以作为国际不稳定的预警信号。
英文摘要：
The study of complex social and political phenomena with the perspective and methods of network science has proven fruitful in a variety of areas, including applications in political science and more narrowly the field of international relations. We propose a new line of research in the study of international conflict by showing that the multiplex fractionalization of the international system (which we label Kantian fractionalization) is a powerful predictor of the propensity for violent interstate conflict, a key indicator of the system's stability. In so doing, we also demonstrate the first use of multislice modularity for community detection in a multiplex network application. Even after controlling for established system-level conflict indicators, we find that Kantian fractionalization contributes more to model fit for violent interstate conflict than previously established measures. Moreover, evaluating the influence of each of the constituent networks shows that joint democracy plays little, if any, role in predicting system stability, thus challenging a major empirical finding of the international relations literature. Lastly, a series of Granger causal tests shows that the temporal variability of Kantian fractionalization is consistent with a causal relationship with the prevalence of conflict in the international system. This causal relationship has real-world policy implications as changes in Kantian fractionalization could serve as an early warning sign of international instability.
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