请愿书签名的快速上升和衰减
Rapid rise and decay in petition signing
摘要：
当代的集体行动，其中大部分涉及社交媒体和其他基于互联网的平台，留下了数字印记，可加以利用，以更好地了解动员的动态。请愿书签名是集体行动的一个例子，随着社交媒体的使用越来越多，它越来越受欢迎，并为给定平台的请愿书签名者提供了此类数据。本文跟踪了英国政府请愿网站（http：//www.example.com）的全部2万份请愿书和美国白宫网站（https：//www.example.com）的1,800份请愿书的增长曲线，分析了增长率和外联机制。petitions.whitehouse.gov epetitions.direct.gov.uk以前的研究表明，第一天的重要性，以最终成功的请愿书，但没有检查早期的增长，在这一天内，使可能通过每小时的决议在这里的数据。分析显示，绝大多数请愿书没有取得任何成功;超过99%的请愿书未能获得官方回应所需的10，000个签名，只有0.1%的请愿书达到议会辩论所需的100，000个签名（美国为0.7%）。我们通过一个乘法过程模型框架来分析数据，以解释在人口水平上的签名的异质性增长。我们定义并测量了请愿的平均外展系数，并表明它衰减得非常快（在英国10小时后降至0.1，在美国30小时后降至0.1）。一两天后，请愿书的命运几乎就决定了。这些发现挑战了经济学和政治学对集体行动的传统分析，其中生产函数被假设为遵循S形曲线。
英文摘要：
Contemporary collective action, much of which involves social media and other Internet-based platforms, leaves a digital imprint which may be harvested to better understand the dynamics of mobilization. Petition signing is an example of collective action which has gained in popularity with rising use of social media and provides such data for the whole population of petition signatories for a given platform. This paper tracks the growth curves of all 20,000 petitions to the UK government petitions website (http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk) and 1,800 petitions to the US White House site (https://petitions.whitehouse.gov), analyzing the rate of growth and outreach mechanism. Previous research has suggested the importance of the first day to the ultimate success of a petition, but has not examined early growth within that day, made possible here through hourly resolution in the data. The analysis shows that the vast majority of petitions do not achieve any measure of success; over 99 percent fail to get the 10,000 signatures required for an official response and only 0.1 percent attain the 100,000 required for a parliamentary debate (0.7 percent in the US). We analyze the data through a multiplicative process model framework to explain the heterogeneous growth of signatures at the population level. We define and measure an average outreach factor for petitions and show that it decays very fast (reducing to 0.1 pervent after 10 hours in the UK and 30 hours in the US). After a day or two, a petition's fate is virtually set. The findings challenge conventional analyses of collective action from economics and political science, where the production function has been assumed to follow an S-shaped curve.
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