There is a large amount of interest in understanding users of social media in order to predict their behavior in this space. Despite this interest, user predictability in social media is not well-understood. To examine this question, we consider a network of fifteen thousand users on Twitter over a seven week period. We apply two contrasting modeling paradigms: computational mechanics and echo state networks. Both methods attempt to model the behavior of users on the basis of their past behavior. We demonstrate that the behavior of users on Twitter can be well-modeled as processes with self-feedback. We find that the two modeling approaches perform very similarly for most users, but that they differ in performance on a small subset of the users. By exploring the properties of these performance-differentiated users, we highlight the challenges faced in applying predictive models to dynamic social data.
Scaling up Echo-State Networks with multiple light scattering
Laboratoire Kastler Brossel（卡斯特勒布罗塞尔实验室）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；PSL Research University（巴黎文理研究大学）；Laboratoire de Physique Statistique（统计物理实验室）；LightOn（LightOn公司）
Echo chambers on social media are a significant problem that can elicit a number of negative consequences, most recently affecting the response to COVID-19. Echo chambers promote conspiracy theories about the virus and are found to be linked to vaccine hesitancy, less compliance with mask mandates, and the practice of social distancing. Moreover, the problem of echo chambers is connected to other pertinent issues like political polarization and the spread of misinformation. An echo chamber is defined as a network of users in which users only interact with opinions that support their pre-existi…
Recent studies have shown that online users tend to select information adhering to their system of beliefs, ignore information that does not, and join groups - i.e., echo chambers - around a shared narrative. Although a quantitative methodology for their identification is still missing, the phenomenon of echo chambers is widely debated both at scientific and political level. To shed light on this issue, we introduce an operational definition of echo chambers and perform a massive comparative analysis on more than 1B pieces of contents produced by 1M users on four social media platforms: Facebo…
Echo chambers may exclude social media users from being exposed to other opinions, therefore, can cause rampant negative effects. Among abundant evidence are the 2016 and 2020 US presidential elections conspiracy theories and polarization, as well as the COVID-19 disinfodemic. To help better detect echo chambers and mitigate its negative effects, this paper explores the mechanisms and attributes of echo chambers in social media. In particular, we first illustrate four primary mechanisms related to three main factors: human psychology, social networks, and automatic systems. We then depict comm…
In the oscillation model that describes the user dynamics of online social networks, it is known that the fundamental equation can explicitly describe the causal relationship between the network structure and user dynamics. The fundamental equation uses algebra that satisfies the anti-commutation relation, and its matrix representation is not unique. However, even if the matrix representations are different, the same results should be derived from different representations of the fundamental equation if they are describing the same phenomenon. In this paper, we confirm, using the echo-chamber …
Online discourse covers a wide range of topics and many actors tailor their content to impact online discussions through carefully crafted messages and targeted campaigns. Yet the scale and diversity of online media content make it difficult to evaluate the impact of a particular message. In this paper, we present a new technique that leverages semantic similarity to quantify the change in the discussion after a particular message has been published. We use a set of press releases from environmental organisations and tweets from the climate change debate to show that our novel approach reveals…
University of Pisa（比萨大学）；ICAR-CNR（意大利国家研究委员会信息与高性能计算研究所）；Sapienza University（罗马大学）；ISI Foundation（ISI基金会）；CENTAI（CENTAI研究所）；Eurecat（加泰罗尼亚技术中心）
Despite echo chambers in social media have been under considerable scrutiny, general models for their detection and analysis are missing. In this work, we aim to fill this gap by proposing a probabilistic generative model that explains social media footprints -- i.e., social network structure and propagations of information -- through a set of latent communities, characterized by a degree of echo-chamber behavior and by an opinion polarity. Specifically, echo chambers are modeled as communities that are permeable to pieces of information with similar ideological polarity, and impermeable to in…
Background: Social media chatter in 2020 has been largely dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Existing research shows that COVID-19 discourse is highly politicized, with political preferences linked to beliefs and disbeliefs about the virus. As it happens with topics that become politicized, people may fall into echo chambers, which is the idea that one is only presented with information they already agree with, thereby reinforcing one's confirmation bias. Understanding the relationship between information dissemination and political preference is crucial for effective public health communicat…
Echo chambers and opinion polarization recently quantified in several sociopolitical contexts and across different social media, raise concerns on their potential impact on the spread of misinformation and on openness of debates. Despite increasing efforts, the dynamics leading to the emergence of these phenomena stay unclear. We propose a model that introduces the dynamics of radicalization, as a reinforcing mechanism driving the evolution to extreme opinions from moderate initial conditions. Inspired by empirical findings on social interaction dynamics, we consider agents characterized by he…
Social Influence and Unfollowing Accelerate the Emergence of Echo Chambers
Graduate School of Informatics, Nagoya University（名古屋大学情报学研究科）；JST, PRESTO（日本科学技术振兴机构，PRESTO项目）；Center for Complex Networks and Systems Research, Indiana University Bloomington（印第安纳大学布卢明顿分校复杂网络与系统研究中心）；Luddy School of Informatics, Computing, and Engineering, Indiana University（印第安纳大学卢迪信息、计算与工程学院）；School of Information, University of Michigan（密歇根大学信息学院）；Network Science Institute, Indiana University（印第安纳大学网络科学研究所）；Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of South Florida（南佛罗里达大学计算机科学与工程系）
In recent years, social media has increasingly become an important platform for political campaigns, especially elections. It remains elusive how exactly public discourse is driven by the intricate interplay between individual socio-cognitive biases, dueling campaign efforts, and social media platforms. We examine this complex socio-political process by integrating observed retweet networks from the 2016 political networks with an agent-based model of political opinion formation and network structure. Here we show that the range of political viewpoints individuals are willing to consider is a …
The effects of social media on critical issues, such as polarization and misinformation, are under scrutiny due to the disruptive consequences that these phenomena can have on our societies. Among the algorithms routinely used by social media platforms, people-recommender systems are of special interest, as they directly contribute to the evolution of the social network structure, affecting the information and the opinions users are exposed to. In this paper, we propose a framework to assess the effect of people recommenders on the evolution of opinions. Our proposal is based on Monte Carlo si…
Homophily -- our tendency to surround ourselves with others who share our perspectives and opinions about the world -- is both a part of human nature and an organizing principle underpinning many of our digital social networks. However, when it comes to politics or culture, homophily can amplify tribal mindsets and produce "echo chambers" that degrade the quality, safety, and diversity of discourse online. While several studies have empirically proven this point, few have explored how making users aware of the extent and nature of their political echo chambers influences their subsequent belie…
A growing body of evidence points to critical vulnerabilities of social media, such as the emergence of partisan echo chambers and the viral spread of misinformation. We show that these vulnerabilities are amplified by abusive behaviors associated with so-called "follow trains" on Twitter, in which long lists of like-minded accounts are mentioned for others to follow. We present the first systematic analysis of a large U.S. hyper-partisan train network. We observe an artificial inflation of influence: accounts heavily promoted by follow trains profit from a median six-fold increase in daily fo…
Social media platforms are known to optimize user engagement with the help of algorithms. It is widely understood that this practice gives rise to echo chambers\emdash users are mainly exposed to opinions that are similar to their own. In this paper, we ask whether echo chambers are an inevitable result of high engagement; we address this question in a novel model. Our main theoretical results establish bounds on the maximum engagement achievable under a diversity constraint, for suitable measures of engagement and diversity; we can therefore quantify the worst-case tradeoff between these two …
Echo chambers are defined by the simultaneous presence of opinion polarization with respect to a controversial topic and homophily, i.e. the preference of individuals to interact with like-minded peers. While recent efforts have been devoted to detecting the presence of echo chambers in polarized debates on online social media, the dynamics leading to the emergence of these phenomena remain unclear. Here, we contribute to this endeavor by proposing novel metrics to single out the effect of the network dynamics from the opinion polarization. By using a Twitter data set collected during a contro…
University of North Carolina at Charlotte（北卡罗来纳大学夏洛特分校）
Online social media, periodically serves as a platform for cascading polarizing topics of conversation. The inherent community structure present in online social networks (homophily) and the advent of fringe outlets like Gab have created online "echo chambers" that amplify the effects of polarization, which fuels detrimental behavior. Recently, in October 2018, Gab made headlines when it was revealed that Robert Bowers, the individual behind the Pittsburgh Synagogue massacre, was an active member of this social media site and used it to express his anti-Semitic views and discuss conspiracy the…
Echo chambers in online social networks, whereby users' beliefs are reinforced by interactions with like-minded peers and insulation from others' points of view, have been decried as a cause of political polarization. Here, we investigate their role in the debate around the 2016 US elections on Reddit, a fundamental platform for the success of Donald Trump. We identify Trump vs Clinton supporters and reconstruct their political interaction network. We observe a preference for cross-cutting political interactions between the two communities rather than within-group interactions, thus contradict…
Twitter, prompted by the rapid spread of alternative narratives, started actively warning users about the spread of COVID-19 misinformation. This form of soft moderation comes in two forms: as a warning cover before the Tweet is displayed to the user and as a warning tag below the Tweet. This study investigates how each of the soft moderation forms affects the perceived accuracy of COVID-19 vaccine misinformation on Twitter. The results suggest that the warning covers work, but not the tags, in reducing the perception of accuracy of COVID-19 vaccine misinformation on Twitter. "Belief echoes" d…
Personalized recommendation benefits users in accessing contents of interests effectively. Current research on recommender systems mostly focuses on matching users with proper items based on user interests. However, significant efforts are missing to understand how the recommendations influence user preferences and behaviors, e.g., if and how recommendations result in \textit{echo chambers}. Extensive efforts have been made in examining the phenomenon in online media and social network systems. Meanwhile, there are growing concerns that recommender systems might lead to the self-reinforcing of…
The QAnon conspiracy posits that Satan-worshiping Democrats operate a covert child sex-trafficking operation, which Donald Trump is destined to expose and annihilate. Emblematic of the ease with which political misconceptions can spread through social media, QAnon originated in late 2017 and rapidly grew to shape the political beliefs of millions. To illuminate the process by which a conspiracy theory spreads, we report two computational studies examining the social network structure and semantic content of tweets produced by users central to the early QAnon network on Twitter. Using data mine…
Social media plays a crucial role in today's society. It results in paradigm changes in how people relate and communicate, convey and exchange ideas. Moreover, social media has evolved into critical knowledge networks for consumers and also affects decision-making. In elections, social media became an integral part of political campaigning to reach a greater audience and gather more support. The 2019 Lok Sabha election saw a massive spike in the usage of online social media platforms such as Twitter, Facebook, and WhatsApp; with every major political party launching its own organized social me…
Recent years have witnessed a swelling rise of hateful and abusive content over online social networks. While detection and moderation of hate speech have been the early go-to countermeasures, the solution requires a deeper exploration of the dynamics of hate generation and propagation. We analyze more than 32 million posts from over 6.8 million users across three popular online social networks to investigate the interrelations between hateful behavior, information dissemination, and polarised organization mediated by echo chambers. We find that hatemongers play a more crucial role in governin…
