校准失败是典型的
Failure of Calibration is Typical
摘要：
Schervish（1985 b）指出，每一个预测系统对于它可能看到的不可数的数据序列都是未经校准的。这个结果在这里得到加强：从拓扑的角度来看，校准失败是典型的，校准罕见。与此同时，贝叶斯预测者确信他们是经过校准的--这引发了人们对贝叶斯主义与理性之间联系的担忧。
英文摘要：
Schervish (1985b) showed that every forecasting system is noncalibrated for uncountably many data sequences that it might see. This result is strengthened here: from a topological point of view, failure of calibration is typical and calibration rare. Meanwhile, Bayesian forecasters are certain that they are calibrated---this invites worries about the connection between Bayesianism and rationality.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
