金融风险分析：2008年金融危机对美国电影周末票房的影响？
A Financial Risk Analysis: Does the 2008 Financial Crisis Give Impact on Weekends Returns of the U.S. Movie Box Office?
摘要：
2008年的金融危机是一场全球性的金融危机，导致了自20世纪30年代以来最严重的全球经济衰退。根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）的数据，全球金融危机在2007年至2010年期间给全球金融机构造成了3.4万亿美元的损失。危机对美国电影票房的回报有影响吗？通过对基于极值理论的金融风险模型的分析，以及风险价值（VaR）和预期损失（ES）的计算来回答这一问题。比较了1982 - 1995年和1996 - 2010年两个时期的VaR和ES值。结果表明，在这两个时间段内，电影产业投资亏损的可能性相对低于盈利的可能性。第二个时期的VaR和ES值高于第一个时期。我们能够得出结论，二零零八年金融危机对第二期间的该等计量值并无重大影响。这一结果说明了美国电影制片商投资的高潜力机会。
英文摘要：
The Financial Crisis of 2008 is a worldwide financial crisis causing a worldwide economic decline that is the most severe since the 1930s. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global financial crisis gave impact on USD 3.4 trillion losses from financial institutions around the world between 2007 and 2010. Does the crisis give impact on the returns of the U.S. movie Box Office? It will be answered by doing an analysis on the financial risk model based on Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and calculations of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). The values of VaR and ES from 2 periods, 1982 to 1995 and 1996 to 2010, are compared. Results show that the possibility of loss for an investment in the movie industry is relatively lower than the possibility of gain for both periods of time. The values of VaR and ES for the second period are higher than the first period. We are able to conclude that the 2008 financial crisis gave no significant effect on these measurement values in the second period. This result describes the high potential opportunity in the investment of the U.S. movie makers.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
