We consider benchmarked empirical Bayes (EB) estimators under the basic area-level model of Fay and Herriot while requiring the standard benchmarking constraint. In this paper we determine the excess mean squared error (MSE) from constraining the estimates through benchmarking. We show that the increase due to benchmarking is O(m^{-1}), where m is the number of small areas. Furthermore, we find an asymptotically unbiased estimator of this MSE and compare it to the second-order approximation of the MSE of the EB estimator or, equivalently, of the MSE of the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP), that was derived by Prasad and Rao (1990). Morever, using methods similar to those of Butar and Lahiri (2003), we compute a parametric bootstrap estimator of the MSE of the benchmarked EB estimator under the Fay-Herriot model and compare it to the MSE of the benchmarked EB estimator found by a second-order approximation. Finally, we illustrate our methods using SAIPE data from the U.S. Census Bureau, and in a simulation study.
In a thought-provoking paper, Efron (2011) investigated the merit and limitation of an empirical Bayes method to correct selection bias based on Tweedie's formula first reported by \cite{Robbins:1956}. The exceptional virtue of Tweedie's formula for the normal distribution lies in its representation of selection bias as a simple function of the derivative of log marginal likelihood. Since the marginal likelihood and its derivative can be estimated from the data directly without invoking prior information, bias correction can be carried out conveniently. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model…
On the Existence of Uniformly Most Powerful Bayesian Tests With Application to Non-Central Chi-Squared Tests
一致最大功效贝叶斯检验（Uniformly Most Powerful Bayesian Test，UMBBT）是贝叶斯假设检验的一个客观类别，可以被认为是经典一致最大功效检验的贝叶斯对应。因为UMPBT的拒绝区域可以与经典一致最大功效检验（UMPT）的拒绝区域相匹配，所以UMPBT提供了用于校准贝叶斯证据阈值、贝叶斯因子、经典显着性水平和p值的机制。本文的目的是将UMPBT的应用扩展到指数族模型之外。具体来说，我们引入了充分条件的存在UMBBT的，并提出了一个统一的方法，他们的推导。我们的方法的一个重要应用是扩展UMBBT的测试卡方分布的非中心性参数是否为零。由此产生的测试具有广泛的适用性，提供默认的替代假设来计算贝叶斯因子，例如，皮尔逊卡方检验的拟合优度，独立性测试的列联表，和似然比，得分和沃尔德测试。
Optimality results for two outstanding Bayesian estimation problems are given in this paper: the estimation of the sampling distribution for the squared total variation function and the estimation of the density for the $L^1$-squared loss function. The posterior predictive distribution provides the solution to these problems. Some examples are presented to illustrate it. The Bayesian estimation problem of a distribution function is also addressed. Consistency of the estimator of the density is proved.
Strong consistency of the Bayes estimator of a regression curve for the $L^1$-squared loss function is proved. It is also shown the convergence to 0 of the Bayes risk of this estimator both for the $L^1$ and $L^1$-squared loss functions. The Bayes estimator of a regression curve is the regression curve with respect to the posterior predictive distribution.
We investigate optimal posteriors for recently introduced \cite{begin2016pac} chi-squared divergence based PAC-Bayesian bounds in terms of nature of their distribution, scalability of computations, and test set performance. For a finite classifier set, we deduce bounds for three distance functions: KL-divergence, linear and squared distances. Optimal posterior weights are proportional to deviations of empirical risks, usually with subset support. For uniform prior, it is sufficient to search among posteriors on classifier subsets ordered by these risks. We show the bound minimization for linea…
Estimation of reliability and hazard rate is one of the most important problems raised in many applications especially in engineering studies as well as human lifetime. In this regard, different methods of estimation have been used. Each method exploits various tools and suffers from problems such as complexity of computations, low precision, and so forth. This study is employed the E-Bayesian method, for estimating the parameter and survival functions of the Weibull Generalized Exponential distribution. The estimators are obtained under squared error and LINEX loss functions under progressive…
In small area estimation, it is sometimes necessary to use model-based methods to produce estimates in areas with little or no data. In official statistics, we often require that some aggregate of small area estimates agree with a national estimate for internal consistency purposes. Enforcing this agreement is referred to as benchmarking, and while methods currently exist to perform benchmarking, few are ideal for applications with non-normal outcomes and benchmarks with uncertainty. Fully Bayesian benchmarking is a theoretically appealing approach insofar as we can obtain posterior distributi…
In this paper, we treat estimation and prediction problems where negative multinomial variables are observed and in particular consider unbalanced settings. First, the problem of estimating multiple negative multinomial parameter vectors under the standardized squared error loss is treated and a new empirical Bayes estimator which dominates the UMVU estimator under suitable conditions is derived. Second, we consider estimation of the joint predictive density of several multinomial tables under the Kullback-Leibler divergence and obtain a sufficient condition under which the Bayesian predictive…
Integrating Marketing Channels into Quantile Transformation and Bayesian Optimization of Ensemble Kernels for Sales Prediction with Gaussian Process Models
This paper studies the E-Bayesian (expectation of the Bayesian estimation) estimation of the parameter of Lomax distribution based on different loss functions. Under different loss functions, we calculate the Bayesian estimation of the parameter and then calculate the expectation of the estimated value to get the E-Bayesian estimation. To measure the estimated error, the E-MSE (expected mean squared error) is introduced. And the formulas of E-Bayesian estimation and E-MSE are given. By applying Markov Chain Monte Carlo technology, we analyze the performances of the proposed methods. Results ar…
The negative multinomial distribution is a multivariate generalization of the negative binomial distribution. In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating an unknown matrix of probabilities on the basis of observations of negative multinomial variables under the standardized squared error loss. First, a general sufficient condition for a shrinkage estimator to dominate the UMVU estimator is derived and an empirical Bayes estimator satisfying the condition is constructed. Next, a hierarchical shrinkage prior is introduced, an associated Bayes estimator is shown to dominate the UMVU esti…
The mixed-logit model is a flexible tool in transportation choice analysis, which provides valuable insights into inter and intra-individual behavioural heterogeneity. However, applications of mixed-logit models are limited by the high computational and data requirements for model estimation. When estimating on small samples, the Bayesian estimation approach becomes vulnerable to over and under-fitting. This is problematic for investigating the behaviour of specific population sub-groups or market segments with low data availability. Similar challenges arise when transferring an existing model…
We give a sufficient condition for admissibility of generalized Bayes estimators of the location vector of spherically symmetric distribution under squared error loss. Compared to the known results for the multivariate normal case, our sufficient condition is very tight and is close to being a necessary condition. In particular we establish the admissibility of generalized Bayes estimators with respect to the harmonic prior and priors with slightly heavier tail than the harmonic prior. We use the theory of regularly varying functions to construct a sequence of smooth proper priors approaching …
University of Liège（列日大学）；University of Vienna（维也纳大学）
We present extensive empirical evidence showing that current Bayesian simulation-based inference algorithms can produce computationally unfaithful posterior approximations. Our results show that all benchmarked algorithms -- (Sequential) Neural Posterior Estimation, (Sequential) Neural Ratio Estimation, Sequential Neural Likelihood and variants of Approximate Bayesian Computation -- can yield overconfident posterior approximations, which makes them unreliable for scientific use cases and falsificationist inquiry. Failing to address this issue may reduce the range of applicability of simulation…
The linear minimum mean squared error (LMMSE) estimator is the best linear estimator for a Bayesian linear inverse problem with respect to the mean squared error. It arises as the solution operator to a Tikhonov-type regularized inverse problem with a particular quadratic discrepancy term and a particular quadratic regularization operator. To be able to evaluate the LMMSE estimator, one must know the forward operator and the first two statistical moments of both the prior and the noise. If such knowledge is not available, one may approximate the LMMSE estimator based on given samples. In this …
In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the density function of a Chi-squared variable on the basis of observations of another Chi-squared variable and a normal variable under the Kullback-Leibler divergence. We assume that these variables have a common unknown scale parameter and that the mean of the normal variable is also unknown. We compare the risk functions of two Bayesian predictive densities: one with respect to a hierarchical shrinkage prior and the other based on a noninformative prior. The hierarchical Bayesian predictive density depends on the normal variable while the…
Optimal Bayesian estimation in random covariate design with a rescaled Gaussian process prior
在贝叶斯非参数模型中，高斯过程为回归函数估计提供了一种流行的先验选择。现有文献的理论研究所产生的后验分布几乎完全假设一个固定的协变量设计。我们所知道的唯一随机设计结果（van der Vaart & van Zanten，2011）假设指定的高斯过程在概率为1的真函数指定的平滑类上得到支持。这是一个相当严格的假设，因为它基本上排除了高斯过程之前的平方指数内核建模粗糙的功能。在这篇文章中，我们表明，一个适当的重新缩放上述高斯过程导致率最优的后验分布，即使协变量是独立实现从一个已知的密度在一个紧凑的集合。证明的基础上得出尖锐的浓度不等式的频率核估计，结果可能是独立的利益。
We study empirical Bayes estimation of the effect sizes of $N$ units from $K$ noisy observations on each unit. We show that it is possible to achieve near-Bayes optimal mean squared error, without any assumptions or knowledge about the effect size distribution or the noise. The noise distribution can be heteroskedastic and vary arbitrarily from unit to unit. Our proposal, which we call Aurora, leverages the replication inherent in the $K$ observations per unit and recasts the effect size estimation problem as a general regression problem. Aurora with linear regression provably matches the perf…
