通货膨胀不确定性、产出增长不确定性与宏观经济绩效：东欧汇率制度比较
Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance: Comparing Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Eastern Europe
摘要：
在90年代后期，在经历了严重的金融和经济危机，伴随着通货膨胀和汇率不稳定之后，东欧出现了两组货币制度截然不同的国家（货币局和通货膨胀目标制）。我们的研究任务是从2000年至今，从通货膨胀、产出增长、名义和实际不确定性之间的关系方面，从计量经济学角度比较这两种制度的表现。换句话说，我们检验了货币和汇率制度与这些联系的非中性假设。总的来说，实证结果并不能让我们判断哪种货币制度更适合和更合理地假设。欧盟扩大是两种制度在通胀、增长及其不确定性方面差异麻木和缺乏一致性的可能解释之一
英文摘要：
In the late 90's, after severe financial and economic crisis, accompanied by inflation and exchange rate instability, Eastern Europe emerged into two groups of countries with radically contrasting monetary regimes (Currency Boards and Inflation targeting). The task of our study is to compare econometrically the performance of these two regimes in terms of the relationship between inflation, output growth, nominal and real uncertainties from 2000 till now. In other words, we test the hypothesis of non-neutrality of monetary and exchange rate regimes with respect to these connections. In a whole, the empirical results do not allow us to judge which monetary regime is more appropriate and reasonable to assume. EU enlargement is one of the possible explanations for the numbing of the differences and the lack of coherence between the two regimes in terms of inflation, growth and their uncertainties
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