arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 1303.5519physics.ao-ph
收藏

答复亨特和布朗讨论是否有任何支持的长期验潮仪数据的索赔,悉尼部分地区将被淹没上升sea levels?,海岸工程2012;64:161-167,海岸工程2013;75:1-3

Reply to Hunter and Brown Discussion of Is there any support in the long term tide gauge data to the claims that parts of Sydney will be swamped by rising sea levels?, Coastal Engineering 2012;64:161-167, Coastal Engineering 2013;75:1-3

Alberto Boretti

摘要:

亨特和布朗试图在他们对我上一篇论文中发表的长期验潮仪数据的讨论中证明,海平面正在加速,而实际上并没有。海平面大多是振荡的,目前肯定不是积极的加速。如后文提出的图表所示,在了解了海平面的振荡特性后,通过使用线性和抛物线拟合,但没有选择性地考虑时间窗,悉尼的验潮仪显示出明显的多年和年际周期,但没有可检测到的加速度分量,类似于太平洋或世界其它地方的许多其它验潮仪,具有足够的质量和长度。如果所有的长期验潮仪都没有显示出任何当前的加速模式,则可能有些模拟和重建可能是错误的,类似于通过只拟合几年的数据来支持正加速声明而选择性地评估海平面上升。

英文摘要:

Hunter and Brown try to demonstrate in their discussion of the long term tide gauge data published in my previous paper that the sea levels are accelerating when they are not. The sea levels are mostly oscillating and certainly not positively accelerating at the present time. As shown in the graphs proposed here after, having an understanding of the oscillatory behaviour of sea levels and by using linear and parabolic fittings but not being selective in the time window to consider, the tide gauge of Sydney exhibits clear multi decadal and inter-annual periodicities but no detectable component of acceleration, similarly to the many others tide gauges of the Pacific or the rest of the world having enough quality and length. If all the long term tide gauges do not exhibit any present accelerating pattern, possibly some simulations and reconstructions may be wrong similarly to the selective assessment of the sea level rise by fitting only the few years of data useful to support the positive acceleration claim.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

↑