单值和集值信念概率模型的无知性和表达性
Ignorance and the Expressiveness of Single- and Set-Valued Probability Models of Belief
摘要：
随着时间的推移，概率分布用于表示信念的方式有了很多改进。依赖于单一概率分布的模型描述了感兴趣的命题之间的完整排序，然而人类的信念有时并不完全有序。概率分布的非单例集可以表示偏序信念。凸集是特别方便和表达，但它是已知的，有合理的模式的信念，其忠实的表示需要较少的限制集。本论文表明，事先无知的三个或更多的排他性的替代品和出现的偏序信念时，获得证据藐视任何一组分布的代表，但产量代表波特几个UT。偏序被证明是一个部分定性概率，它与概率分布共享一些直观上吸引人的属性。
英文摘要：
Over time, there have hen refinements in the way that probability distributions are used for representing beliefs. Models which rely on single probability distributions depict a complete ordering among the propositions of interest, yet human beliefs are sometimes not completely ordered. Non-singleton sets of probability distributions can represent partially ordered beliefs. Convex sets are particularly convenient and expressive, but it is known that there are reasonable patterns of belief whose faithful representation require less restrictive sets. The present paper shows that prior ignorance about three or more exclusive alternatives and the emergence of partially ordered beliefs when evidence is obtained defy representation by any single set of distributions, but yield to a representation baud on several uts. The partial order is shown to be a partial qualitative probability which shares some intuitively appealing attributes with probability distributions.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
