This paper examines the problem of constructing belief networks to evaluate plans produced by an knowledge-based planner. Techniques are presented for handling various types of complicating plan features. These include plans with context-dependent consequences, indirect consequences, actions with preconditions that must be true during the execution of an action, contingencies, multiple levels of abstraction multiple execution agents with partially-ordered and temporally overlapping actions, and plans which reference specific times and time durations.
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；University of Pittsburgh（匹兹堡大学）
This paper presents a Bayesian method for constructing Bayesian belief networks from a database of cases. Potential applications include computer-assisted hypothesis testing, automated scientific discovery, and automated construction of probabilistic expert systems. Results are presented of a preliminary evaluation of an algorithm for constructing a belief network from a database of cases. We relate the methods in this paper to previous work, and we discuss open problems.
Bayes belief networks and influence diagrams are tools for constructing coherent probabilistic representations of uncertain knowledge. The process of constructing such a network to represent an expert's knowledge is used to illustrate a variety of techniques which can facilitate the process of structuring and quantifying uncertain relationships. These include some generalizations of the "noisy OR gate" concept. Sensitivity analysis of generic elements of Bayes' networks provides insight into when rough probability assessments are sufficient and when greater precision may be important.
Information Extraction and Transport, Inc.（信息提取与传输公司）；George Mason University（乔治梅森大学）
This paper describes a process for constructing situation-specific belief networks from a knowledge base of network fragments. A situation-specific network is a minimal query complete network constructed from a knowledge base in response to a query for the probability distribution on a set of target variables given evidence and context variables. We present definitions of query completeness and situation-specific networks. We describe conditions on the knowledge base that guarantee query completeness. The relationship of our work to earlier work on KBMC is also discussed.
A similarity network is a tool for constructing belief networks for the diagnosis of a single fault. In this paper, we examine modifications to the similarity-network representation that facilitate the construction of belief networks for the diagnosis of multiple coexisting faults.
We describe an environment that considerably simplifies the process of generating Bayesian belief networks. The system has been implemented on readily available, inexpensive hardware, and provides clarity and high performance. We present an introduction to Bayesian belief networks, discuss algorithms for inference with these networks, and delineate the classes of problems that can be solved with this paradigm. We then describe the hardware and software that constitute the system, and illustrate Ergo's use with several example
University of Tennessee（田纳西大学）；Oak Ridge National Laboratory（橡树岭国家实验室）
An elaboration of Dempster's method of constructing belief functions suggests a broadly applicable strategy for constructing lower probabilities under a variety of evidentiary constraints.
We describe a method for incrementally constructing belief networks. We have developed a network-construction language similar to a forward-chaining language using data dependencies, but with additional features for specifying distributions. Using this language, we can define parameterized classes of probabilistic models. These parameterized models make it possible to apply probabilistic reasoning to problems for which it is impractical to have a single large static model.
Information Extraction and Transport, Inc.（信息提取与传输公司）；George Mason University（乔治梅森大学）
In most current applications of belief networks, domain knowledge is represented by a single belief network that applies to all problem instances in the domain. In more complex domains, problem-specific models must be constructed from a knowledge base encoding probabilistic relationships in the domain. Most work in knowledge-based model construction takes the rule as the basic unit of knowledge. We present a knowledge representation framework that permits the knowledge base designer to specify knowledge in larger semantically meaningful units which we call network fragments. Our framework prov…
School of Computing Queen’s University（女王大学计算机学院）；University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）；Alan Turing Institute（艾伦图灵研究所）；Faculty of Computer Science University of Bozen-Bolzano（博岑-博尔扎诺大学计算机学院）；Department of Computer Science University of Toronto（多伦多大学计算机科学系）；School of Computing and Information Systems University of Melbourne（墨尔本大学计算与信息系统学院）
Many AI applications involve the interaction of multiple autonomous agents, requiring those agents to reason about their own beliefs, as well as those of other agents. However, planning involving nested beliefs is known to be computationally challenging. In this work, we address the task of synthesizing plans that necessitate reasoning about the beliefs of other agents. We plan from the perspective of a single agent with the potential for goals and actions that involve nested beliefs, non-homogeneous agents, co-present observations, and the ability for one agent to reason as if it were another…
We are interested in the problem of planning for factored POMDPs. Building on the recent results of Kearns, Mansour and Ng, we provide a planning algorithm for factored POMDPs that exploits the accuracy-efficiency tradeoff in the belief state simplification introduced by Boyen and Koller.
Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia（意大利理工学院）；Università di Genova（热那亚大学）
Task planning in a probabilistic belief state domains allows generating complex and robust execution policies in those domains affected by state uncertainty. The performance of a task planner relies on the belief state representation. However, current belief state representation becomes easily intractable as the number of variables and execution time grows. To address this problem, we developed a novel belief state representation based on cartesian product and union operations over belief substates. These two operations and single variable assignment nodes form And-Or directed acyclic graph of…
Bayesian learning of belief networks (BLN) is a method for automatically constructing belief networks (BNs) from data using search and Bayesian scoring techniques. K2 is a particular instantiation of the method that implements a greedy search strategy. To evaluate the accuracy of K2, we randomly generated a number of BNs and for each of those we simulated data sets. K2 was then used to induce the generating BNs from the simulated data. We examine the performance of the program, and the factors that influence it. We also present a simple BN model, developed from our results, which predicts the …
Autonomous agents operating in perceptually aliased environments should ideally be able to solve the data association problem. Yet, planning for future actions while considering this problem is not trivial. State of the art approaches therefore use multi-modal hypotheses to represent the states of the agent and of the environment. However, explicitly considering all possible data associations, the number of hypotheses grows exponentially with the planning horizon. As such, the corresponding Belief Space Planning problem quickly becomes unsolvable. Moreover, under hard computational budget cons…
Kutato is a system that takes as input a database of cases and produces a belief network that captures many of the dependence relations represented by those data. This system incorporates a module for determining the entropy of a belief network and a module for constructing belief networks based on entropy calculations. Kutato constructs an initial belief network in which all variables in the database are assumed to be marginally independent. The entropy of this belief network is calculated, and that arc is added that minimizes the entropy of the resulting belief network. Conditional probabili…
In recent years, multi-agent epistemic planning has received attention from both dynamic logic and planning communities. Existing implementations of multi-agent epistemic planning are based on compilation into classical planning and suffer from various limitations, such as generating only linear plans, restriction to public actions, and incapability to handle disjunctive beliefs. In this paper, we propose a general representation language for multi-agent epistemic planning where the initial KB and the goal, the preconditions and effects of actions can be arbitrary multi-agent epistemic formula…
Technion - Israel Institute of Technology（以色列理工学院）
One of the most complex tasks of decision making and planning is to gather information. This task becomes even more complex when the state is high-dimensional and its belief cannot be expressed with a parametric distribution. Although the state is high-dimensional, in many problems only a small fraction of it might be involved in transitioning the state and generating observations. We exploit this fact to calculate an information-theoretic expected reward, mutual information (MI), over a much lower-dimensional subset of the state, to improve efficiency and without sacrificing accuracy. A simil…
Technion - Israel Institute of Technology（以色列理工学院）
Online decision making under uncertainty in partially observable domains, also known as Belief Space Planning, is a fundamental problem in robotics and Artificial Intelligence. Due to an abundance of plausible future unravelings, calculating an optimal course of action inflicts an enormous computational burden on the agent. Moreover, in many scenarios, e.g., information gathering, it is required to introduce a belief-dependent constraint. Prompted by this demand, in this paper, we consider a recently introduced probabilistic belief-dependent constrained POMDP. We present a technique to adaptiv…
We have developed a probabilistic forecasting methodology through a synthesis of belief network models and classical time-series analysis. We present the dynamic network model (DNM) and describe methods for constructing, refining, and performing inference with this representation of temporal probabilistic knowledge. The DNM representation extends static belief-network models to more general dynamic forecasting models by integrating and iteratively refining contemporaneous and time-lagged dependencies. We discuss key concepts in terms of a model for forecasting U.S. car sales in Japan.
Universidad Simón Bolívar（西蒙·玻利瓦尔大学）；ICREA & Universitat Pompeu Fabra（加泰罗尼亚研究与高级研究所暨庞培法布拉大学）
Belief tracking is a basic problem in planning with sensing. While the problem is intractable, it has been recently shown that for both deterministic and non-deterministic systems expressed in compact form, it can be done in time and space that are exponential in the problem width. The width measures the maximum number of state variables that are all relevant to a given precondition or goal. In this work, we extend this result both theoretically and practically. First, we introduce an alternative decomposition scheme and algorithm with the same time complexity but different completeness guaran…
Self-play is a common paradigm for constructing solutions in Markov games that can yield optimal policies in collaborative settings. However, these policies often adopt highly-specialized conventions that make playing with a novel partner difficult. To address this, recent approaches rely on encoding symmetry and convention-awareness into policy training, but these require strong environmental assumptions and can complicate policy training. We therefore propose moving the learning of conventions to the belief space. Specifically, we propose a belief learning model that can maintain beliefs ove…
University of Birmingham（伯明翰大学）；Queensland University of Technology（昆士兰科技大学）
Belief space planning is a viable alternative to formalise partially observable control problems and, in the recent years, its application to robot manipulation problems has grown. However, this planning approach was tried successfully only on simplified control problems. In this paper, we apply belief space planning to the problem of planning dexterous reach-to-grasp trajectories under object pose uncertainty. In our framework, the robot perceives the object to be grasped on-the-fly as a point cloud and compute a full 6D, non-Gaussian distribution over the object's pose (our belief space). Th…
A framework is presented for a computational theory of probabilistic argument. The Probabilistic Reasoning Environment encodes knowledge at three levels. At the deepest level are a set of schemata encoding the system's domain knowledge. This knowledge is used to build a set of second-level arguments, which are structured for efficient recapture of the knowledge used to construct them. Finally, at the top level is a Bayesian network constructed from the arguments. The system is designed to facilitate not just propagation of beliefs and assimilation of evidence, but also the dynamic process of c…
Technion - Israel Institute of Technology（以色列理工学院）
Deciding what's next? is a fundamental problem in robotics and Artificial Intelligence. Under belief space planning (BSP), in a partially observable setting, it involves calculating the expected accumulated belief-dependent reward, where the expectation is with respect to all future measurements. Since solving this general un-approximated problem quickly becomes intractable, state of the art approaches turn to approximations while still calculating planning sessions from scratch. In this work we propose a novel paradigm, Incremental BSP (iX-BSP), based on the key insight that calculations acro…
To solve multi-step manipulation tasks in the real world, an autonomous robot must take actions to observe its environment and react to unexpected observations. This may require opening a drawer to observe its contents or moving an object out of the way to examine the space behind it. Upon receiving a new observation, the robot must update its belief about the world and compute a new plan of action. In this work, we present an online planning and execution system for robots faced with these challenges. We perform deterministic cost-sensitive planning in the space of hybrid belief states to sel…
Department of Computer Science（计算机科学系）；Department of Aerospace EngineeringTechnion - Israel Institute of Technology（以色列理工学院航空航天工程系）；Technion - Israel Institute of Technology（以色列理工学院）；Technion - Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa 32000, Israel（以色列理工学院（海法））
In this paper, we consider online planning in partially observable domains. Solving the corresponding POMDP problem is a very challenging task, particularly in an online setting. Our key contribution is a novel algorithmic approach, Simplified Information Theoretic Belief Space Planning (SITH-BSP), which aims to speed-up POMDP planning considering belief-dependent rewards, without compromising on the solution's accuracy. We do so by mathematically relating the simplified elements of the problem to the corresponding counterparts of the original problem. Specifically, we focus on belief simplifi…
Precise coordinated planning over a forward time window enables safe and highly efficient motion when many robots must work together in tight spaces, but this would normally require centralised control of all devices which is difficult to scale. We demonstrate GBP Planning, a new purely distributed technique based on Gaussian Belief Propagation for multi-robot planning problems, formulated by a generic factor graph defining dynamics and collision constraints over a forward time window. In simulations, we show that our method allows high performance collaborative planning where robots are able …
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；NASA Ames Research Center（美国国家航空航天局艾姆斯研究中心）
Adaptive Informative Path Planning with Multimodal Sensing (AIPPMS) considers the problem of an agent equipped with multiple sensors, each with different sensing accuracy and energy costs. The agent's goal is to explore the environment and gather information subject to its resource constraints in unknown, partially observable environments. Previous work has focused on the less general Adaptive Informative Path Planning (AIPP) problem, which considers only the effect of the agent's movement on received observations. The AIPPMS problem adds additional complexity by requiring that the agent reaso…
An Epistemic Human-Aware Task Planner which Anticipates Human Beliefs and Decisions
LAAS-CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心自动化与系统分析实验室）；Université de Toulouse（图卢兹大学）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；INSA（国立应用科学学院）；UPS（图卢兹第三大学）；Artificial and Natural Intelligence Toulouse Institute (ANITI)（图卢兹人工与自然智能研究所）
Robots assisting humans in complex domains have to represent knowledge and reason at both the sensorimotor level and the social level. The architecture described in this paper couples the non-monotonic logical reasoning capabilities of a declarative language with probabilistic belief revision, enabling robots to represent and reason with qualitative and quantitative descriptions of knowledge and degrees of belief. Specifically, incomplete domain knowledge, including information that holds in all but a few exceptional situations, is represented as a Answer Set Prolog (ASP) program. The answer s…
