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arXiv 1302.3704physics.data-anq-fin.ST
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平稳时间序列递归性的无模型刻画

A model-free characterization of recurrences in stationary time series

Rémy Chicheportiche, Anirban Chakraborti

摘要:

研究地震、气候、金融时间序列等的重现性,对于更好地预测灾害和限制其后果至关重要。然而,几乎所有的唯象研究都只涉及长程自相关函数,或者忽略了由潜在的高阶相关性引起的多尺度特性。因此,他们忽略了这样一个事实,即非线性相关性确实会影响递归时间的统计和动态,并且无条件分布的缩放参数可能不适用。我们认为,Copula是正确的无模型框架来研究时间序列中的非线性依赖关系和相关概念,如递归。拟合和/或模拟复发间隔的跨时间分布是非常系统特定的,并且与先前的权利要求相反,实际上不能受益于通用特征。这在癫痫预后和金融风险管理应用中具有重要意义。

英文摘要:

Study of recurrences in earthquakes, climate, financial time-series, etc. is crucial to better forecast disasters and limit their consequences. However, almost all the previous phenomenological studies involved only a long-ranged autocorrelation function, or disregarded the multi-scaling properties induced by potential higher order dependencies. Consequently, they missed the facts that non-linear dependences do impact both the statistics and dynamics of recurrence times, and that scaling arguments for the unconditional distribution may not be applicable. We argue that copulas is the correct model-free framework to study non-linear dependencies in time series and related concepts like recurrences. Fitting and/or simulating the intertemporal distribution of recurrence intervals is very much system specific, and cannot actually benefit from universal features, in contrast to the previous claims. This has important implications in epilepsy prognosis and financial risk management applications.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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