从诺贝尔奖到项目管理：正确应对风险
From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right
摘要：
项目管理中的一个主要风险来源是对项目成本、需求和其他影响的不准确预测。本文基于2002年诺贝尔经济学奖的不确定性下的决策理论，提出了一种有前途的新方法来减轻这种风险。第一，文件的不准确性和风险的项目管理。其次，它解释了乐观偏见和战略性错误陈述方面的不准确性。第三，提出了一个有前途的新方法，称为“参考类预测”的理论基础，它实现了基于预测的实际表现在一个参考类的可比项目，从而绕过乐观偏见和战略误报的准确性。第四，本文介绍了实用参考类预测的第一个实例，涉及大型交通基础设施项目的成本预测。最后，潜力和障碍，参考类预测进行评估。
英文摘要：
A major source of risk in project management is inaccurate forecasts of project costs, demand, and other impacts. The paper presents a promising new approach to mitigating such risk, based on theories of decision making under uncertainty which won the 2002 Nobel prize in economics. First, the paper documents inaccuracy and risk in project management. Second, it explains inaccuracy in terms of optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Third, the theoretical basis is presented for a promising new method called "reference class forecasting," which achieves accuracy by basing forecasts on actual performance in a reference class of comparable projects and thereby bypassing both optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Fourth, the paper presents the first instance of practical reference class forecasting, which concerns cost forecasts for large transportation infrastructure projects. Finally, potentials for and barriers to reference class forecasting are assessed.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
