决策理论故障排除：一个修复和实验框架
Decision-Theoretic Troubleshooting: A Framework for Repair and Experiment
摘要：
我们开发和扩展现有的决策理论的方法来排除故障的设备。传统上，贝叶斯网络的诊断集中在信念更新-确定当前观测的各种故障的概率。在本文中，我们扩展了这种范式，包括采取行动。特别地，我们考虑三类动作：（1）我们可以像传统诊断中那样对设备的行为进行观察并推断可能的故障，（2）我们可以修复组件，然后观察设备的行为以推断可能的故障，以及（3）我们可以改变设备的配置，观察其新的行为，并推断故障的可能性。后两类故障排除动作的分析需要将持久性的概念纳入用于概率推理的信念网络形式主义。
英文摘要：
We develop and extend existing decision-theoretic methods for troubleshooting a nonfunctioning device. Traditionally, diagnosis with Bayesian networks has focused on belief updating---determining the probabilities of various faults given current observations. In this paper, we extend this paradigm to include taking actions. In particular, we consider three classes of actions: (1) we can make observations regarding the behavior of a device and infer likely faults as in traditional diagnosis, (2) we can repair a component and then observe the behavior of the device to infer likely faults, and (3) we can change the configuration of the device, observe its new behavior, and infer the likelihood of faults. Analysis of latter two classes of troubleshooting actions requires incorporating notions of persistence into the belief-network formalism used for probabilistic inference.
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