MAD和外星人？星际威慑及其影响
MAD with Aliens? Interstellar deterrence and its implications
摘要：
外星智能（ETIs）可能对人类怀有敌意的可能性已经被提出来作为避免甚至试图与ETIs联系的理由。然而，关于攻击风险的分析性讨论明显不足，也许是因为一个隐含的前提，即我们无法分析外星文明的决策。本文认为，我们可以从冷战和核威慑的历史中得出一些推论，以表明至少有一些攻击情景可能被夸大。特别是，人类似乎不太可能仅仅因为在未来某个时候对ETI构成威胁而受到攻击。即使沟通被证明是困难的，理性的决策者也应该避免无端的攻击，因为他们的成功很难保证。总的来说，似乎可以相信文明之间的星际冲突仍然很少。然而，研究结果建议对拟议中的星际任务保持谨慎，因为星际航行能力本身可能被视为威胁。另一方面，试图联系外星人似乎是一个相对低风险的策略：偏执的外星人也必须考虑到这些信息是一种欺骗的可能性，旨在引诱敌对文明并先发制人地摧毁它们。
英文摘要：
The possibility that extraterrestrial intelligences (ETIs) could be hostile to humanity has been raised as a reason to avoid even trying to contact ETIs. However, there is a distinct shortage of analytical discussion about the risks of an attack, perhaps because of an implicit premise that we cannot analyze the decision making of an alien civilization. This paper argues that we can draw some inferences from the history of the Cold War and nuclear deterrence in order to show that at least some attack scenarios are likely to be exaggerated. In particular, it would seem to be unlikely that the humanity would be attacked simply because it might, some time in the future, present a threat to the ETI. Even if communication proves to be difficult, rational decision-makers should avoid unprovoked attacks, because their success would be very difficult to assure. In general, it seems believable that interstellar conflicts between civilizations would remain rare. The findings advise caution for proposed interstellar missions, however, as starfaring capability itself might be seen as a threat. On the other hand, attempting to contact ETIs seems to be a relatively low-risk strategy: paranoid ETIs must also consider the possibility that the messages are a deception designed to lure out hostile civilizations and preemptively destroy them.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
