虚拟水控制了国家的人口增长
Virtual water controlled demographic growth of nations
摘要：
人口增长一般受到粮食生产的制约，而粮食生产又取决于能否获得水资源。在国家一级，一些人口的用水量超过了他们的控制能力，因为他们有能力进口粮食和生产粮食所需的虚拟水。在这里，我们调查人口增长对出口国和进口国可用水资源的依赖性。通过计算食品贸易网络中的虚拟水，量化各国的承载能力，我们指出全球水资源失衡的存在。我们认为，目前的出口率将不会保持下去，因此，我们对整个粮食贸易体系的长期可持续性提出质疑。水资源丰富的地区可能很快就会减少虚拟水的出口量，从而使依赖进口的地区没有足够的水来维持其人口。我们还调查了可能通过以下方式减轻这些影响的可能情景的潜在影响：（1）国家之间的合作互动，即水资源丰富的国家保持其粮食生产的一小部分可用于出口;（2）消费模式的变化;（3）人口增长和技术创新之间的正反馈。我们发现，这些战略确实可以减少水控制社会的脆弱性。
英文摘要：
Population growth is in general constrained by food production, which in turn depends on the access to water resources. At a country level, some populations use more water than they control because of their ability to import food and the virtual water required for its production. Here, we investigate the dependence of demographic growth on available water resources for exporting and importing nations. By quantifying the carrying capacity of nations based on calculations of the virtual water available through the food trade network, we point to the existence of a global water unbalance. We suggest that current export rates will not be maintained and consequently we question the long-run sustainability of the food trade system as a whole. Water rich regions are likely to soon reduce the amount of virtual water they export, thus leaving import-dependent regions without enough water to sustain their populations. We also investigate the potential impact of possible scenarios that might mitigate these effects through (1) cooperative interactions among nations whereby water rich countries maintain a tiny fraction of their food production available for export; (2) changes in consumption patterns; and (3) a positive feedback between demographic growth and technological innovations. We find that these strategies may indeed reduce the vulnerability of water-controlled societies.
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