如何导出多种概率
How to Elicit Many Probabilities
摘要：
在构建贝叶斯信念网络时，所需的所有概率的推导可能是一个主要障碍。在构建癌症治疗领域复杂影响图的概率部分时，我们了解了这一经常被引用的观察结果的程度。在总结已有方法的基础上，设计了一种新的领域专家概率抽取方法。该方法结合了各种想法，其中包括转录概率的想法，以及使用带有数字和文字锚点的量表进行评分评估的想法。在构建影响图的概率部分时，该方法被证明可以在很短的时间内得出许多概率。
英文摘要：
In building Bayesian belief networks, the elicitation of all probabilities required can be a major obstacle. We learned the extent of this often-cited observation in the construction of the probabilistic part of a complex influence diagram in the field of cancer treatment. Based upon our negative experiences with existing methods, we designed a new method for probability elicitation from domain experts. The method combines various ideas, among which are the ideas of transcribing probabilities and of using a scale with both numerical and verbal anchors for marking assessments. In the construction of the probabilistic part of our influence diagram, the method proved to allow for the elicitation of many probabilities in little time.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
