LHC SUSY中保守性的证据
Evidence for Conservatism in LHC SUSY Searches
摘要：
在高能物理学界，宣称发现新物理的标准是观测到的信号超过估计的背景的$5σ$。虽然$3σ$过量还不足以宣称发现，但它肯定足以激起实验学家和理论家的兴趣。然而，在大型强子对撞机上，ATLAS和CMS合作进行了大量的搜索，人们预计多个$σ$结果的非零数量仅仅是由于无信号场景中的统计波动。我们的分析使用完整的2011年数据集检查CMS和ATLAS超对称（SUSY）搜索的p值分布，以确定合作是否在其分析中过于保守。我们发现，在$p=0.005$的水平上，“中等”$σ$值在统计上显著过量，表明在估计不确定性时过于保守。
英文摘要：
The standard in the high energy physics community for claiming discovery of new physics is a $5σ$ excess in the observed signal over the estimated background. While a $3σ$ excess is not enough to claim discovery, it is certainly enough to pique the interest of both experimentalists and theorists. However, with a large number of searches performed by both the ATLAS and CMS collaborations at the LHC, one expects a nonzero number of multi-$σ$ results simply due to statistical fluctuations in the no-signal scenario. Our analysis examines the distribution of p-values for CMS and ATLAS supersymmetry (SUSY) searches using the full 2011 data set to determine if the collaborations are being overly conservative in their analyses. We find that there is a statistically significant excess of `medium' $σ$ values at the level of $p=0.005$, indicating over-conservativism in the estimation of uncertainties.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
