关于全球经济潜力和不可再生资源的边际成本以及能源商品的价格
On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities
摘要：
在这项工作中提出了一个模型，用于模拟内生的能源载体的生产，其消费，消耗途径和时间尺度的边际成本的演变。这种边际成本可以用来模拟能源商品的长期平均价格形成。借鉴以往的工作，其中一个全球数据库的能源经济潜力的建设，这项工作使用的成本分布的不可再生资源，以评估全球流动的能源商品。给出了一个在给定外生商品价格路径的情况下计算能源资源内生流动的数学框架，该框架可以反过来用于在给定外生载体需求的情况下计算能源载体的外生边际生产成本。这两种方法使用独立于经济的刚性价格非弹性假设，产生描述极端使用自然资源的限制情景。这有助于了解化石燃料和天然铀等剩余不可再生资源的现状和可能用途。然而，该理论是为允许技术替代的经济或技术模型而设计的。在这项工作中，它是在全球电力行业模型FTT：电源。政策含义。
英文摘要：
A model is presented in this work for simulating endogenously the evolution of the marginal costs of production of energy carriers from non-renewable resources, their consumption, depletion pathways and timescales. Such marginal costs can be used to simulate the long term average price formation of energy commodities. Drawing on previous work where a global database of energy resource economic potentials was constructed, this work uses cost distributions of non-renewable resources in order to evaluate global flows of energy commodities. A mathematical framework is given to calculate endogenous flows of energy resources given an exogenous commodity price path. This framework can be used in reverse in order to calculate an exogenous marginal cost of production of energy carriers given an exogenous carrier demand. Using rigid price inelastic assumptions independent of the economy, these two approaches generate limiting scenarios that depict extreme use of natural resources. This is useful to characterise the current state and possible uses of remaining non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels and natural uranium. The theory is however designed for use within economic or technology models that allow technology substitutions. In this work, it is implemented in the global power sector model FTT:Power. Policy implications are given.
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