关于天体统计学的未来：统计基础和统计实践
On the future of astrostatistics: statistical foundations and statistical practice
摘要：
本文总结了2011年6月在宾夕法尼亚州立大学举行的现代天文学第五届统计挑战会议上关于“天体统计学的未来”的小组讨论的报告。我认为，新出现的需求，天体统计学可能会激励和受益于统计学的基本发展。我强调了一些最近的工作，在统计学的基本主题相关的天体统计学的实践，包括贝叶斯/频率论的辩论（和想法的综合），多层次模型，和多重检验。作为统计学未来工作的一个重要方向，我强调天文学家需要一个明确支持展开发现链的统计框架，数据的获取，编目和建模不被视为孤立的任务，而是作为一个持续的，综合的分析序列的一部分，信息和不确定性通过链向前和向后传播。一个典型的例子是天文人口的调查，其中源检测，人口建模以及调查工具和策略的设计都是相互作用的。
英文摘要：
This paper summarizes a presentation for a panel discussion on "The Future of Astrostatistics" held at the Statistical Challenges in Modern Astronomy V conference at Pennsylvania State University in June 2011. I argue that the emerging needs of astrostatistics may both motivate and benefit from fundamental developments in statistics. I highlight some recent work within statistics on fundamental topics relevant to astrostatistical practice, including the Bayesian/frequentist debate (and ideas for a synthesis), multilevel models, and multiple testing. As an important direction for future work in statistics, I emphasize that astronomers need a statistical framework that explicitly supports unfolding chains of discovery, with acquisition, cataloging, and modeling of data not seen as isolated tasks, but rather as parts of an ongoing, integrated sequence of analyses, with information and uncertainty propagating forward and backward through the chain. A prototypical example is surveying of astronomical populations, where source detection, demographic modeling, and the design of survey instruments and strategies all interact.
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