为什么、何时以及多快采用创新
Why, when, and how fast innovations are adopted
摘要：
当一种新产品的全部库存在几天或几周内迅速售出时，人们会有这样的印象：新技术的发展和占领市场非常容易。对于某些新技术，例如手机，这可能是正确的，但对于其他技术，例如蓝光，则不是这样。新颖性，实用性，广告，价格和时尚是采用新产品的驱动力。但是，导致采用新技术的关键因素是什么？在本文中，我们提出并研究了一个简单的模型，主要取决于三个要素：新颖性的吸引力，惯性或阻力，采用它，并与其他代理人的互动。社会互动以两种方式考虑：模仿和分化，即，如果许多人都采用创新，一些代理人将倾向于采用创新，但其他代理人将采取相反的方向，试图从“羊群”中区分出来。我们通过考虑广告的强度和社会互动的影响来确定成功植入新技术的条件。我们在广告和可能阻止新产品采用的反羊群代理数量之间找到了平衡。我们还比较了社会互动的影响，当代理人考虑到整个社会的行为或只是它的一部分。简而言之，本模型再现定性采用创新的可用数据。
英文摘要：
When the full stock of a new product is quickly sold in a few days or weeks, one has the impression that new technologies develop and conquer the market in a very easy way. This may be true for some new technologies, for example the cell phone, but not for others, like the blue-ray. Novelty, usefulness, advertising, price, and fashion are the driving forces behind the adoption of a new product. But, what are the key factors that lead to adopt a new technology? In this paper we propose and investigate a simple model for the adoption of an innovation which depends mainly on three elements: the appeal of the novelty, the inertia or resistance to adopt it, and the interaction with other agents. Social interactions are taken into account in two ways: by imitation and by differentiation, i.e., some agents will be inclined to adopt an innovation if many people do the same, but other will act in the opposite direction, trying to differentiate from the "herd". We determine the conditions for a successful implantation of the new technology, by considering the strength of advertising and the effect of social interactions. We find a balance between the advertising and the number of anti-herding agents that may block the adoption of a new product. We also compare the effect of social interactions, when agents take into account the behavior of the whole society or just a part of it. In a nutshell, the present model reproduces qualitatively the available data on adoption of innovation.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
