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arXiv 1207.4176cs.AI
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通过系统搜索从实例中学习诊断策略

Learning Diagnostic Policies from Examples by Systematic Search

Oregon State University(俄勒冈州立大学)

Valentina Bayer-Zubek

摘要:

诊断策略根据先前测试的结果指定接下来要执行的测试,以及何时停止并进行诊断。成本敏感的诊断策略在(a)测试成本和(b)误诊成本之间进行权衡。一个最优的诊断策略使期望的总成本最小化。我们将此诊断过程形式化为马尔可夫决策过程(MDP)。我们研究了两种类型的算法来解决这个MDP:基于AO* 算法和贪婪搜索(特别是信息值方法)的系统搜索。我们调查的问题,学习的MDP概率的例子,但只有当他们是相关的搜索良好的政策。我们不学习也不假设诊断过程的贝叶斯网络。正则化器的发展,以控制过拟合和加快搜索。这项研究是第一个将过拟合预防集成到系统搜索中的研究。本文有两个贡献:它讨论的因素,使系统搜索可行的诊断,它表明实验,在基准数据集,系统搜索方法产生更好的诊断策略比贪婪的方法。

英文摘要:

A diagnostic policy specifies what test to perform next, based on the results of previous tests, and when to stop and make a diagnosis. Cost-sensitive diagnostic policies perform tradeoffs between (a) the cost of tests and (b) the cost of misdiagnoses. An optimal diagnostic policy minimizes the expected total cost. We formalize this diagnosis process as a Markov Decision Process (MDP). We investigate two types of algorithms for solving this MDP: systematic search based on AO* algorithm and greedy search (particularly the Value of Information method). We investigate the issue of learning the MDP probabilities from examples, but only as they are relevant to the search for good policies. We do not learn nor assume a Bayesian network for the diagnosis process. Regularizers are developed to control overfitting and speed up the search. This research is the first that integrates overfitting prevention into systematic search. The paper has two contributions: it discusses the factors that make systematic search feasible for diagnosis, and it shows experimentally, on benchmark data sets, that systematic search methods produce better diagnostic policies than greedy methods.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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