在千年气候模拟中从人工树木生长重建大尺度温度的模糊性
Ambiguity of large scale temperature reconstructions from artificial tree growth in millennial climate simulations
摘要：
温度重建的模糊性进行了评估，使用伪树生长系列在虚拟现实的两个模拟气候的上个千年。Vaganov-Shashkin-Lite（VS-Lite）代码简单，基于过程，可计算由有限数量的气候参数控制的树木生长响应。不同的环境气候条件下的生长限制允许可能的非线性和非平稳性的伪树生长序列。温度的统计重建是通过简单的局部回归和复合加缩放技术从模拟树木生长随机选择伪代理位置来实现的，以解决除了已知的不确定性和重建方法的缺点之外，在古气候重建中的其他模糊性。一个系统的经验评估表明，模拟目标和重建的温度之间的相互关系经历强烈的变化，可能明显的温度误报。因此，（i）百年尺度年际相关性可能非常弱;（ii）重建温度的年代际范围可能与所考虑的时间段内温度变化的范围一样大;（iii）重建中的年代际变率不足。错误的陈述部分是由于随时间变化的温度增长的关系，并在模拟的伪增长系列相比，当地的温度明显缺乏十年尺度的变化。
英文摘要：
The ambiguity of temperature reconstructions is assessed using pseudo tree growth series in the virtual reality of two simulations of the climate of the last millennium. The simple, process-based Vaganov-Shashkin-Lite (VS-Lite) code calculates tree growth responses controlled by a limited number of climatic parameters. Growth limitation by different ambient climate conditions allows for possible nonlinearity and non-stationarity in the pseudo tree growth series. Statistical reconstructions of temperature are achieved from simulated tree growth for random selections of pseudo-proxy locations by simple local regression and composite plus scaling techniques to address additional ambiguities in paleoclimate reconstructions besides the known uncertainty and shortcomings of the reconstruction methods. A systematic empirical evaluation shows that the interrelations between simulated target and reconstructed temperatures undergo strong variations with possibly pronounced misrepresentations of temperatures. Thus (i) centennial scale inter-annual correlations can be very weak; (ii) the decadal range of reconstructed temperatures may be as large as the range of the temperature variations over the considered time-period; (iii) decadal variability is under-represented in the reconstructions. The misrepresentations are in part due to the temporally varying temperature-growth relations and to an apparent lack of decadal scale variability in the simulated pseudo-growth series compared to the local temperatures.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
