Assume that cause-effect relationships between variables can be described as a directed acyclic graph and the corresponding linear structural equation model.We consider the identification problem of total effects in the presence of latent variables and selection bias between a treatment variable and a response variable. Pearl and his colleagues provided the back door criterion, the front door criterion (Pearl, 2000) and the conditional instrumental variable method (Brito and Pearl, 2002) as identifiability criteria for total effects in the presence of latent variables, but not in the presence of selection bias. In order to solve this problem, we propose new graphical identifiability criteria for total effects based on the identifiable factor models. The results of this paper are useful to identify total effects in observational studies and provide a new viewpoint to the identification conditions of factor models.
We propose an approach for learning the causal structure in stochastic dynamical systems with a $1$-step functional dependency in the presence of latent variables. We propose an information-theoretic approach that allows us to recover the causal relations among the observed variables as long as the latent variables evolve without exogenous noise. We further propose an efficient learning method based on linear regression for the special sub-case when the dynamics are restricted to be linear. We validate the performance of our approach via numerical simulations.
Identifying Direct Causal Effects in Latent Factor Models by Accounting for Unidentified Parents
German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Data Science（德国航空航天中心数据科学研究所）；Technische Universität Berlin（柏林工业大学）；Institute of Mathematics, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)（洛桑联邦理工学院数学研究所）；Institute of Computer Science, University of Potsdam（波茨坦大学计算机研究所）；Department of Mathematics, TUM School of Computation, Information and Technology, Technical University of Munich（慕尼黑工业大学计算、信息与技术学院数学系）；Munich Center for Machine Learning（慕尼黑机器学习中心）
Informatics Institute（信息学研究所）；University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）
We prove the main rules of causal calculus (also called do-calculus) for i/o structural causal models (ioSCMs), a generalization of a recently proposed general class of non-/linear structural causal models that allow for cycles, latent confounders and arbitrary probability distributions. We also generalize adjustment criteria and formulas from the acyclic setting to the general one (i.e. ioSCMs). Such criteria then allow to estimate (conditional) causal effects from observational data that was (partially) gathered under selection bias and cycles. This generalizes the backdoor criterion, the se…
Causal processes in nature may contain cycles, and real datasets may violate causal sufficiency as well as contain selection bias. No constraint-based causal discovery algorithm can currently handle cycles, latent variables and selection bias (CLS) simultaneously. I therefore introduce an algorithm called Cyclic Causal Inference (CCI) that makes sound inferences with a conditional independence oracle under CLS, provided that we can represent the cyclic causal process as a non-recursive linear structural equation model with independent errors. Empirical results show that CCI outperforms CCD in …
We present a sound and complete algorithm, called iterative causal discovery (ICD), for recovering causal graphs in the presence of latent confounders and selection bias. ICD relies on the causal Markov and faithfulness assumptions and recovers the equivalence class of the underlying causal graph. It starts with a complete graph, and consists of a single iterative stage that gradually refines this graph by identifying conditional independence (CI) between connected nodes. Independence and causal relations entailed after any iteration are correct, rendering ICD anytime. Essentially, we tie the …
Propensity score analysis with latent covariates: Measurement error bias correction using the covariate's posterior mean, aka the inclusive factor score
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health（约翰斯·霍普金斯大学彭博公共卫生学院）
Score-Based Causal Discovery of Latent Variable Causal Models
Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；University of California, San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）；Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence（穆罕默德·本·扎耶德人工智能大学）
A common approach to modeling networks assigns each node to a position on a low-dimensional manifold where distance is inversely proportional to connection likelihood. More positive manifold curvature encourages more and tighter communities; negative curvature induces repulsion. We consistently estimate manifold type, dimension, and curvature from simply connected, complete Riemannian manifolds of constant curvature. We represent the graph as a noisy distance matrix based on the ties between cliques, then develop hypothesis tests to determine whether the observed distances could plausibly be e…
Understanding the heterogeneity over spatial locations is an important problem that has been widely studied in many applications such as economics and environmental science. In this paper, we focus on regression models for spatial panel data analysis, where repeated measurements are collected over time at various spatial locations. We propose a novel class of nonparametric priors that combines Markov random field (MRF) with the product partition model (PPM), and show that the resulting prior, called by MRF-PPM, is capable of identifying the latent group structure among the spatial locations wh…
Reductions in natural habitats urge that we better understand species' interconnection and how biological communities respond to environmental changes. However, ecological studies of species' interactions are limited by their geographic and taxonomic focus which can distort our understanding of interaction dynamics. We focus on bird-plant interactions that refer to situations of potential fruit consumption and seed dispersal. We develop an approach for predicting species' interactions that accounts for errors in the recorded interaction networks, addresses the geographic and taxonomic biases o…
Latent or unobserved phenomena pose a significant difficulty in data analysis as they induce complicated and confounding dependencies among a collection of observed variables. Factor analysis is a prominent multivariate statistical modeling approach that addresses this challenge by identifying the effects of (a small number of) latent variables on a set of observed variables. However, the latent variables in a factor model are purely mathematical objects that are derived from the observed phenomena, and they do not have any interpretation associated to them. A natural approach for attributing …
Identifying the causal structure of systems with multiple dynamic elements is critical to several scientific disciplines. The conventional approach is to conduct statistical tests of causality, for example with Granger Causality, between observed signals that are selected a priori. Here it is posited that, in many systems, the causal relations are embedded in a latent space that is expressed in the observed data as a linear mixture. A technique for blindly identifying the latent sources is presented: the observations are projected into pairs of components -- driving and driven -- to maximize t…
