通过动力和统计降尺度的近岸波浪预报和后报
Nearshore wave forecasting and hindcasting by dynamical and statistical downscaling
摘要：
本文介绍了一个高分辨率嵌套WAM/SWAN波浪模式套件，该模式套件旨在快速建立近岸海浪预报以及当地波浪条件的气候和返回值，并考虑到快速环境评估（REA）。该系统的目标是在当地的波浪增长和部分暴露于复杂的开放海浪条件下，使诊断波建模困难的地区。SWAN的分辨率为500米，嵌套在WAM的10公里版本中。进行了一年多的模式积分，绘制了波场的空间发布图。该模型与测波浮标观测值（0.96），但高估了波高有点（18%，偏差0.29米）。为了估计波高返回值，需要更长的时间序列，并且在REA设置中，在这样的时间段内运行SWAN是不现实的。相反，我们建立了一个方向相关的转换函数之间的一个已经存在的粗公海后报数据集和高分辨率嵌套SWAN模型。回报值估计使用合奏估计两个不同的极值分布的基础上完整的52年的统计缩小后报数据。我们发现缩小的波高和测波浮标观测之间有很好的一致性。生成统计上缩小的后报时间序列的成本可以忽略不计，并且可以针对SWAN域内的任意位置重做，尽管必须针对每个新位置仔细选择扇区。该方法被认为是非常适合于快速提供详细的海浪预报以及后报和返回值估计的部分遮蔽沿海地区。
英文摘要：
A high-resolution nested WAM/SWAN wave model suite aimed at rapidly establishing nearshore wave forecasts as well as a climatology and return values of the local wave conditions with Rapid Enviromental Assessment (REA) in mind is described. The system is targeted at regions where local wave growth and partial exposure to complex open-ocean wave conditions makes diagnostic wave modelling difficult. SWAN is set up on 500 m resolution and is nested in a 10 km version of WAM. A model integration of more than one year is carried out to map the spatial distribution of the wave field. The model correlates well with wave buoy observations (0.96) but overestimates the wave height somewhat (18%, bias 0.29 m). To estimate wave height return values a much longer time series is required and running SWAN for such a period is unrealistic in a REA setting. Instead we establish a direction-dependent transfer function between an already existing coarse open-ocean hindcast dataset and the high-resolution nested SWAN model. Return values are estimated using ensemble estimates of two different extreme-value distributions based on the full 52 years of statistically downscaled hindcast data. We find good agreement between downscaled wave height and wave buoy observations. The cost of generating the statistically downscaled hindcast time series is negligible and can be redone for arbitrary locations within the SWAN domain, although the sectors must be carefully chosen for each new location. The method is found to be well suited to rapidly providing detailed wave forecasts as well as hindcasts and return values estimates of partly sheltered coastal regions.
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