In this paper we present a synthesis of the work performed on two inference algorithms: the Pearl's belief propagation (BP) algorithm applied to Bayesian networks without loops (i.e. polytree) and the Loopy belief propagation (LBP) algorithm (inspired from the BP) which is applied to networks containing undirected cycles. It is known that the BP algorithm, applied to Bayesian networks with loops, gives incorrect numerical results i.e. incorrect posterior probabilities. Murphy and al. [7] find that the LBP algorithm converges on several networks and when this occurs, LBP gives a good approximation of the exact posterior probabilities. However this algorithm presents an oscillatory behaviour when it is applied to QMR (Quick Medical Reference) network [15]. This phenomenon prevents the LBP algorithm from converging towards a good approximation of posterior probabilities. We believe that the translation of the inference computation problem from the probabilistic framework to the possibilistic framework will allow performance improvement of LBP algorithm. We hope that an adaptation of this algorithm to a possibilistic causal network will show an improvement of the convergence of LBP.
Recently, researchers have demonstrated that loopy belief propagation - the use of Pearls polytree algorithm IN a Bayesian network WITH loops OF error- correcting codes.The most dramatic instance OF this IS the near Shannon - limit performance OF Turbo Codes codes whose decoding algorithm IS equivalent TO loopy belief propagation IN a chain - structured Bayesian network. IN this paper we ask : IS there something special about the error - correcting code context, OR does loopy propagation WORK AS an approximate inference schemeIN a more general setting? We compare the marginals computed using l…
University of Michigan（密歇根大学）；DEVCOM Army Research Laboratory（DEVCOM陆军研究实验室）；BI Norwegian Business School（BI挪威商学院）；University of Brescia（布雷西亚大学）
In second-order uncertain Bayesian networks, the conditional probabilities are only known within distributions, i.e., probabilities over probabilities. The delta-method has been applied to extend exact first-order inference methods to propagate both means and variances through sum-product networks derived from Bayesian networks, thereby characterizing epistemic uncertainty, or the uncertainty in the model itself. Alternatively, second-order belief propagation has been demonstrated for polytrees but not for general directed acyclic graph structures. In this work, we extend Loopy Belief Propagat…
This paper presents a new deterministic approximation technique in Bayesian networks. This method, "Expectation Propagation", unifies two previous techniques: assumed-density filtering, an extension of the Kalman filter, and loopy belief propagation, an extension of belief propagation in Bayesian networks. All three algorithms try to recover an approximate distribution which is close in KL divergence to the true distribution. Loopy belief propagation, because it propagates exact belief states, is useful for a limited class of belief networks, such as those which are purely discrete. Expectatio…
We derive novel sufficient conditions for convergence of Loopy Belief Propagation (also known as the Sum-Product algorithm) to a unique fixed point. Our results improve upon previously known conditions. For binary variables with (anti-)ferromagnetic interactions, our conditions seem to be sharp.
We address the question of convergence in the loopy belief propagation (LBP) algorithm. Specifically, we relate convergence of LBP to the existence of a weak limit for a sequence of Gibbs measures defined on the LBP s associated computation tree.Using tools FROM the theory OF Gibbs measures we develop easily testable sufficient conditions FOR convergence.The failure OF convergence OF LBP implies the existence OF multiple phases FOR the associated Gibbs specification.These results give new insight INTO the mechanics OF the algorithm.
We present a novel inference algorithm for arbitrary, binary, undirected graphs. Unlike loopy belief propagation, which iterates fixed point equations, we directly descend on the Bethe free energy. The algorithm consists of two phases, first we update the pairwise probabilities, given the marginal probabilities at each unit,using an analytic expression. Next, we update the marginal probabilities, given the pairwise probabilities by following the negative gradient of the Bethe free energy. Both steps are guaranteed to decrease the Bethe free energy, and since it is lower bounded, the algorithm …
Institut de Recherche en Informatique de Toulouse (IRIT) - CNRS（图卢兹计算机科学研究所（IRIT）- 法国国家科学研究中心）；Universite Paul Sabatier（保罗·萨巴蒂埃大学）
This paper discusses belief revision under uncertain inputs in the framework of possibility theory. Revision can be based on two possible definitions of the conditioning operation, one based on min operator which requires a purely ordinal scale only, and another based on product, for which a richer structure is needed, and which is a particular case of Dempster's rule of conditioning. Besides, revision under uncertain inputs can be understood in two different ways depending on whether the input is viewed, or not, as a constraint to enforce. Moreover, it is shown that M.A. Williams' transmutati…
Possibilistic logic has been proposed as a numerical formalism for reasoning with uncertainty. There has been interest in developing qualitative accounts of possibility, as well as an explanation of the relationship between possibility and modal logics. We present two modal logics that can be used to represent and reason with qualitative statements of possibility and necessity. Within this modal framework, we are able to identify interesting relationships between possibilistic logic, beliefs and conditionals. In particular, the most natural conditional definable via possibilistic means for def…
In this paper an approach to automated deduction under uncertainty,based on possibilistic logic, is proposed ; for that purpose we deal with clauses weighted by a degree which is a lower bound of a necessity or a possibility measure, according to the nature of the uncertainty. Two resolution rules are used for coping with the different situations, and the refutation method can be generalized. Besides the lower bounds are allowed to be functions of variables involved in the clause, which gives hypothetical reasoning capabilities. The relation between our approach and the idea of minimizing abno…
Sensor networks are an exciting new kind of computer system. Consisting of a large number of tiny, cheap computational devices physically distributed in an environment, they gather and process data about the environment in real time. One of the central questions in sensor networks is what to do with the data, i.e., how to reason with it and how to communicate it. This paper argues that the lessons of the UAI community, in particular that one should produce and communicate beliefs rather than raw sensor values, are highly relevant to sensor networks. We contend that loopy belief propagation is …
DeepMind（深度思维）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
PGMax is an open-source Python package for (a) easily specifying discrete Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) as factor graphs; and (b) automatically running efficient and scalable loopy belief propagation (LBP) in JAX. PGMax supports general factor graphs with tractable factors, and leverages modern accelerators like GPUs for inference. Compared with existing alternatives, PGMax obtains higher-quality inference results with up to three orders-of-magnitude inference time speedups. PGMax additionally interacts seamlessly with the rapidly growing JAX ecosystem, opening up new research possibil…
Universitat de Lleida (UdL)（莱里达大学）；CSIC（西班牙国家研究委员会）
In this paper we present a propositional logic programming language for reasoning under possibilistic uncertainty and representing vague knowledge. Formulas are represented by pairs (A, c), where A is a many-valued proposition and c is value in the unit interval [0,1] which denotes a lower bound on the belief on A in terms of necessity measures. Belief states are modeled by possibility distributions on the set of all many-valued interpretations. In this framework, (i) we define a syntax and a semantics of the general underlying uncertainty logic; (ii) we provide a modus ponens-style calculus f…
We propose a new approach to the analysis of Loopy Belief Propagation (LBP) by establishing a formula that connects the Hessian of the Bethe free energy with the edge zeta function. The formula has a number of theoretical implications on LBP. It is applied to give a sufficient condition that the Hessian of the Bethe free energy is positive definite, which shows non-convexity for graphs with multiple cycles. The formula clarifies the relation between the local stability of a fixed point of LBP and local minima of the Bethe free energy. We also propose a new approach to the uniqueness of LBP fix…
We propose a new approach to the theoretical analysis of Loopy Belief Propagation (LBP) and the Bethe free energy (BFE) by establishing a formula to connect LBP and BFE with a graph zeta function. The proposed approach is applicable to a wide class of models including multinomial and Gaussian types. The connection derives a number of new theoretical results on LBP and BFE. This paper focuses two of such topics. One is the analysis of the region where the Hessian of the Bethe free energy is positive definite, which derives the non-convexity of BFE for graphs with multiple cycles, and a conditio…
IRIT – Paul Sabatier University（IRIT - 图卢兹第三大学（保罗·萨巴蒂埃大学））；Onera – The French Aerospace Lab（法国国家航空航天研究中心）
Possibilistic and qualitative POMDPs (pi-POMDPs) are counterparts of POMDPs used to model situations where the agent's initial belief or observation probabilities are imprecise due to lack of past experiences or insufficient data collection. However, like probabilistic POMDPs, optimally solving pi-POMDPs is intractable: the finite belief state space exponentially grows with the number of system's states. In this paper, a possibilistic version of Mixed-Observable MDPs is presented to get around this issue: the complexity of solving pi-POMDPs, some state variables of which are fully observable, …
Loopy and generalized belief propagation are popular algorithms for approximate inference in Markov random fields and Bayesian networks. Fixed points of these algorithms correspond to extrema of the Bethe and Kikuchi free energy. However, belief propagation does not always converge, which explains the need for approaches that explicitly minimize the Kikuchi/Bethe free energy, such as CCCP and UPS. Here we describe a class of algorithms that solves this typically nonconvex constrained minimization of the Kikuchi free energy through a sequence of convex constrained minimizations of upper bounds …
Precision achieved by stochastic sampling algorithms for Bayesian networks typically deteriorates in face of extremely unlikely evidence. To address this problem, we propose the Evidence Pre-propagation Importance Sampling algorithm (EPIS-BN), an importance sampling algorithm that computes an approximate importance function by the heuristic methods: loopy belief Propagation and e-cutoff. We tested the performance of e-cutoff on three large real Bayesian networks: ANDES, CPCS, and PATHFINDER. We observed that on each of these networks the EPIS-BN algorithm gives us a considerable improvement ov…
Evidential Information Fusion on Possibilistic Structure
School of Electronics and Information, Northwestern Polytechnical University（电子信息学院，西北工业大学）；Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Alberta（阿尔伯塔大学电气与计算机工程系）；China Mobile Information Technology Center（中国移动信息科技中心）；Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences（波兰科学院系统研究所）；Institute of Fundamental and Frontier Science, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China（中国电子科技大学基础与前沿科学研究院）
We give an axiomatization of confidence transfer - a known conditioning scheme - from the perspective of expectation-based inference in the sense of Gardenfors and Makinson. Then, we use the notion of belief independence to "filter out" different proposal s of possibilistic conditioning rules, all are variations of confidence transfer. Among the three rules that we consider, only Dempster's rule of conditioning passes the test of supporting the notion of belief independence. With the use of this conditioning rule, we then show that we can use local computation for computing desired conditional…
In Non - ergodic belief networks the posterior belief OF many queries given evidence may become zero.The paper shows that WHEN belief propagation IS applied iteratively OVER arbitrary networks(the so called, iterative OR loopy belief propagation(IBP)) it IS identical TO an arc - consistency algorithm relative TO zero - belief queries(namely assessing zero posterior probabilities). This implies that zero - belief conclusions derived BY belief propagation converge AND are sound.More importantly it suggests that the inference power OF IBP IS AS strong AND AS weak, AS that OF arc - consistency.Thi…
Belief propagation is a fundamental message-passing algorithm for numerous applications in machine learning. It is known that belief propagation algorithm is exact on tree graphs. However, belief propagation is run on loopy graphs in most applications. So, understanding the behavior of belief propagation on loopy graphs has been a major topic for researchers in different areas. In this paper, we study the convergence behavior of generalized belief propagation algorithm on graphs with motifs (triangles, loops, etc.) We show under a certain initialization, generalized belief propagation converge…
IIIA-CSIC（西班牙国家研究委员会人工智能研究所）；Université de Lyon（里昂大学）；MINES Saint-Etienne（圣埃蒂安国立矿业学校）
In the context of solving large distributed constraint optimization problems (DCOP), belief-propagation and approximate inference algorithms are candidates of choice. However, in general, when the factor graph is very loopy (i.e. cyclic), these solution methods suffer from bad performance, due to non-convergence and many exchanged messages. As to improve performances of the Max-Sum inference algorithm when solving loopy constraint optimization problems, we propose here to take inspiration from the belief-propagation-guided dec-imation used to solve sparse random graphs (k-satisfiability). We p…
The Factored Frontier (FF) algorithm is a simple approximate inferencealgorithm for Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs). It is very similar tothe fully factorized version of the Boyen-Koller (BK) algorithm, butinstead of doing an exact update at every step followed bymarginalisation (projection), it always works with factoreddistributions. Hence it can be applied to models for which the exactupdate step is intractable. We show that FF is equivalent to (oneiteration of) loopy belief propagation (LBP) on the original DBN, andthat BK is equivalent (to one iteration of) LBP on a DBN where wecluster s…
Hanyang University（汉阳大学）；Baylor College of Medicine（贝勒医学院）；Rice University（莱斯大学）；University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；Uber ATG Toronto（优步先进技术集团多伦多分部）；Vector Institute（向量研究所）；Canadian Institute for Advanced Research（加拿大高等研究院）
A fundamental computation for statistical inference and accurate decision-making is to compute the marginal probabilities or most probable states of task-relevant variables. Probabilistic graphical models can efficiently represent the structure of such complex data, but performing these inferences is generally difficult. Message-passing algorithms, such as belief propagation, are a natural way to disseminate evidence amongst correlated variables while exploiting the graph structure, but these algorithms can struggle when the conditional dependency graphs contain loops. Here we use Graph Neural…
IBM T.J. Watson Research Center（IBM T.J. Watson研究中心）；U. C. Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）
We consider the problem of diagnosing faults in a system represented by a Bayesian network, where diagnosis corresponds to recovering the most likely state of unobserved nodes given the outcomes of tests (observed nodes). Finding an optimal subset of tests in this setting is intractable in general. We show that it is difficult even to compute the next most-informative test using greedy test selection, as it involves several entropy terms whose exact computation is intractable. We propose an approximate approach that utilizes the loopy belief propagation infrastructure to simultaneously compute…
We propose an original particle-based implementation of the Loopy Belief Propagation (LPB) algorithm for pairwise Markov Random Fields (MRF) on a continuous state space. The algorithm constructs adaptively efficient proposal distributions approximating the local beliefs at each note of the MRF. This is achieved by considering proposal distributions in the exponential family whose parameters are updated iterately in an Expectation Propagation (EP) framework. The proposed particle scheme provides consistent estimation of the LBP marginals as the number of particles increases. We demonstrate that…
We present new message passing algorithms for performing inference with graphical models. Our methods are designed for the most difficult inference problems where loopy belief propagation and other heuristics fail to converge. Belief propagation is guaranteed to converge when the underlying graphical model is acyclic, but can fail to converge and is sensitive to initialization when the underlying graph has complex topology. This paper describes modifications to the standard belief propagation algorithms that lead to methods that converge to unique solutions on graphical models with arbitrary t…
Near optimal decoding of good error control codes is generally a difficult task. However, for a certain type of (sufficiently) good codes an efficient decoding algorithm with near optimal performance exists. These codes are defined via a combination of constituent codes with low complexity trellis representations. Their decoding algorithm is an instance of (loopy) belief propagation and is based on an iterative transfer of constituent beliefs. The beliefs are thereby given by the symbol probabilities computed in the constituent trellises. Even though weak constituent codes are employed close t…
Universidade de Aveiro（阿威罗大学）；A. F. Ioffe Physico-Technical Institute（A. F. 约费物理技术研究所）
We generalize the belief-propagation algorithm to sparse random networks with arbitrary distributions of motifs (triangles, loops, etc.). Each vertex in these networks belongs to a given set of motifs (generalization of the configuration model). These networks can be treated as sparse uncorrelated hypergraphs in which hyperedges represent motifs. Here a hypergraph is a generalization of a graph, where a hyperedge can connect any number of vertices. These uncorrelated hypergraphs are tree-like (hypertrees), which crucially simplify the problem and allow us to apply the belief-propagation algori…
In this article, we present a visual introduction to Gaussian Belief Propagation (GBP), an approximate probabilistic inference algorithm that operates by passing messages between the nodes of arbitrarily structured factor graphs. A special case of loopy belief propagation, GBP updates rely only on local information and will converge independently of the message schedule. Our key argument is that, given recent trends in computing hardware, GBP has the right computational properties to act as a scalable distributed probabilistic inference framework for future machine learning systems.
The two most important algorithms in artificial intelligence are backpropagation and belief propagation. In spite of their importance, the connection between them is poorly characterized. We show that when an input to backpropagation is converted into an input to belief propagation so that (loopy) belief propagation can be run on it, then the result of belief propagation encodes the result of backpropagation; thus backpropagation is recovered as a special case of belief propagation. In other words, we prove for apparently the first time that belief propagation generalizes backpropagation. Our …
Relational Markov Random Fields are a general and flexible framework for reasoning about the joint distribution over attributes of a large number of interacting entities. The main computational difficulty in learning such models is inference. Even when dealing with complete data, where one can summarize a large domain by sufficient statistics, learning requires one to compute the expectation of the sufficient statistics given different parameter choices. The typical solution to this problem is to resort to approximate inference procedures, such as loopy belief propagation. Although these proce…
Uber AI Labs（优步人工智能实验室）；Uber ATG（优步先进技术集团）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
We leverage automatic differentiation (AD) and probabilistic programming to develop an end-to-end optimization algorithm for batch triangulation of a large number of unknown objects. Given noisy detections extracted from noisily geo-located street level imagery without depth information, we jointly estimate the number and location of objects of different types, together with parameters for sensor noise characteristics and prior distribution of objects conditioned on side information. The entire algorithm is framed as nested stochastic variational inference. An inner loop solves a soft data ass…
We describe a general framework for probabilistic modeling of complex scenes and inference from ambiguous observations. The approach is motivated by applications in image analysis and is based on the use of priors defined by stochastic grammars. We define a class of grammars that capture relationships between the objects in a scene and provide important contextual cues for statistical inference. The distribution over scenes defined by a probabilistic scene grammar can be represented by a graphical model and this construction can be used for efficient inference with loopy belief propagation. We…
University of Rochester（罗切斯特大学）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）
Loopy belief propagation performs approximate inference on graphical models with loops. One might hope to compensate for the approximation by adjusting model parameters. Learning algorithms for this purpose have been explored previously, and the claim has been made that every set of locally consistent marginals can arise from belief propagation run on a graphical model. On the contrary, here we show that many probability distributions have marginals that cannot be reached by belief propagation using any set of model parameters or any learning algorithm. We call such marginals `unbelievable.' T…
Center for Machine Perception, Czech Technical University（捷克技术大学机器感知中心）
It is known that fixed points of loopy belief propagation (BP) correspond to stationary points of the Bethe variational problem, where we minimize the Bethe free energy subject to normalization and marginalization constraints. Unfortunately, this does not entirely explain BP because BP is a dual rather than primal algorithm to solve the Bethe variational problem -- beliefs are infeasible before convergence. Thus, we have no better understanding of BP than as an algorithm to seek for a common zero of a system of non-linear functions, not explicitly related to each other. In this theoretical pap…
Belief Propagation (BP) is a widely used approximation for exact probabilistic inference in graphical models, such as Markov Random Fields (MRFs). In graphs with cycles, however, no exact convergence guarantees for BP are known, in general. For the case when all edges in the MRF carry the same symmetric, doubly stochastic potential, recent works have proposed to approximate BP by linearizing the update equations around default values, which was shown to work well for the problem of node classification. The present paper generalizes all prior work and derives an approach that approximates loopy…
Attack graphs provide compact representations of the attack paths that an attacker can follow to compromise network resources by analysing network vulnerabilities and topology. These representations are a powerful tool for security risk assessment. Bayesian inference on attack graphs enables the estimation of the risk of compromise to the system's components given their vulnerabilities and interconnections, and accounts for multi-step attacks spreading through the system. Whilst static analysis considers the risk posture at rest, dynamic analysis also accounts for evidence of compromise, e.g. …
Belief Propagation (BP) is one of the most popular methods for inference in probabilistic graphical models. BP is guaranteed to return the correct answer for tree structures, but can be incorrect or non-convergent for loopy graphical models. Recently, several new approximate inference algorithms based on cavity distribution have been proposed. These methods can account for the effect of loops by incorporating the dependency between BP messages. Alternatively, region-based approximations (that lead to methods such as Generalized Belief Propagation) improve upon BP by considering interactions wi…
We derive novel conditions that guarantee convergence of the Sum-Product algorithm (also known as Loopy Belief Propagation or simply Belief Propagation) to a unique fixed point, irrespective of the initial messages. The computational complexity of the conditions is polynomial in the number of variables. In contrast with previously existing conditions, our results are directly applicable to arbitrary factor graphs (with discrete variables) and are shown to be valid also in the case of factors containing zeros, under some additional conditions. We compare our bounds with existing ones, numerical…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Belief Propagation (BP) are the most popular algorithms for computational inference in Graphical Models (GM). In principle, MCMC is an exact probabilistic method which, however, often suffers from exponentially slow mixing. In contrast, BP is a deterministic method, which is typically fast, empirically very successful, however in general lacking control of accuracy over loopy graphs. In this paper, we introduce MCMC algorithms correcting the approximation error of BP, i.e., we provide a way to compensate for BP errors via a consecutive BP-aware MCMC. Our fra…
It is well known that an arbitrary graphical model of statistical inference defined on a tree, i.e. on a graph without loops, is solved exactly and efficiently by an iterative Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm convergent to unique minimum of the so-called Bethe free energy functional. For a general graphical model on a loopy graph the functional may show multiple minima, the iterative BP algorithm may converge to one of the minima or may not converge at all, and the global minimum of the Bethe free energy functional is not guaranteed to correspond to the optimal Maximum-Likelihood (ML) solutio…
NICTA（澳大利亚国家信息与通信技术研究院）；Australian National University（澳大利亚国立大学）
Maximum A Posteriori inference in graphical models is often solved via message-passing algorithms, such as the junction-tree algorithm, or loopy belief-propagation. The exact solution to this problem is well known to be exponential in the size of the model's maximal cliques after it is triangulated, while approximate inference is typically exponential in the size of the model's factors. In this paper, we take advantage of the fact that many models have maximal cliques that are larger than their constituent factors, and also of the fact that many factors consist entirely of latent variables (i.…
University of Michigan（密歇根大学）；University of Texas Medical Branch（德克萨斯大学医学部）；Institute for Translational Sciences（转化科学研究所）；Electrical Engineering and Computer Science（电气工程与计算机科学学院）
The problem of active diagnosis arises in several applications such as disease diagnosis, and fault diagnosis in computer networks, where the goal is to rapidly identify the binary states of a set of objects (e.g., faulty or working) by sequentially selecting, and observing, (noisy) responses to binary valued queries. Current algorithms in this area rely on loopy belief propagation for active query selection. These algorithms have an exponential time complexity, making them slow and even intractable in large networks. We propose a rank-based greedy algorithm that sequentially chooses queries s…
Dynamic trees are mixtures of tree structured belief networks. They solve some of the problems of fixed tree networks at the cost of making exact inference intractable. For this reason approximate methods such as sampling or mean field approaches have been used. However, mean field approximations assume a factorized distribution over node states. Such a distribution seems unlickely in the posterior, as nodes are highly correlated in the prior. Here a structured variational approach is used, where the posterior distribution over the non-evidential nodes is itself approximated by a dynamic tree.…
Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）
We study the extent to which we can infer users' geographical locations from social media. Location inference from social media can benefit many applications, such as disaster management, targeted advertising, and news content tailoring. The challenges, however, lie in the limited amount of labeled data and the large scale of social networks. In this paper, we formalize the problem of inferring location from social media into a semi-supervised factor graph model (SSFGM). The model provides a probabilistic framework in which various sources of information (e.g., content and social network) can …
Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；University of California, Irvine（加州大学欧文分校）
While loopy belief propagation (LBP) performs reasonably well for inference in some Gaussian graphical models with cycles, its performance is unsatisfactory for many others. In particular for some models LBP does not converge, and in general when it does converge, the computed variances are incorrect (except for cycle-free graphs for which belief propagation (BP) is non-iterative and exact). In this paper we propose {\em feedback message passing} (FMP), a message-passing algorithm that makes use of a special set of vertices (called a {\em feedback vertex set} or {\em FVS}) whose removal result…
