数据分析方法：推理的概率演算
Data analysis recipes: Probability calculus for inference
摘要：
在这本针对那些想要开始思考或温习概率推理的教学文本中，我回顾了概率分布函数可以（和不可以）组合的规则。我将这些规则与概率数据分析中执行的操作联系起来。量纲分析强调作为一个有价值的工具，帮助构建非错误的概率报表。概率演算在构造似然、边缘似然、后验概率和后验预测中的应用都被讨论。
英文摘要：
In this pedagogical text aimed at those wanting to start thinking about or brush up on probabilistic inference, I review the rules by which probability distribution functions can (and cannot) be combined. I connect these rules to the operations performed in probabilistic data analysis. Dimensional analysis is emphasized as a valuable tool for helping to construct non-wrong probabilistic statements. The applications of probability calculus in constructing likelihoods, marginalized likelihoods, posterior probabilities, and posterior predictions are all discussed.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
