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arXiv 1204.4528cs.SIphysics.soc-ph
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学习异步时间信息扩散模型及其在社交网络行为数据分析中的应用

Learning Asynchronous-Time Information Diffusion Models and its Application to Behavioral Data Analysis over Social Networks

Kazumi Saito, Masahiro Kimura, Kouzou Ohara, Hiroshi Motoda

摘要:

在大型社会网络上进行信息扩散的一个有趣且重要的问题是从有限数量的扩散信息中识别合适的模型。信息扩散有两种不同的建模方法:一种是称为独立级联(IC)模型的推式模型,另一种是称为线性阈值(LT)模型的拉式模型。我们扩展了这两个模型(本文称为AsIC和AsLT),将异步时间延迟和调查1)他们如何不同或彼此相似的信息扩散方面,2)是否模型本身是可学习的或不从观察到的信息扩散数据,和3)哪个模型更适合解释一个特定的主题(信息)扩散/传播。我们首先展示了如何对时间延迟进行建模,并推导出每个模型生成的观测数据的可能性。使用一个特定的时间延迟模型,我们证明了模型参数是可学习的,从一个有限的数量的观察。然后,我们提出了一种基于预测精度的方法,通过该方法来选择一个更好地解释观测数据的模型。进行了广泛的评价。我们首先使用合成数据与网络结构取自真实网络,有相当大的行为差异之间的AsIC和AsLT模型,所提出的方法准确,稳定地学习模型参数,并确定正确的扩散模型从有限数量的观测数据。接下来,我们将这些方法应用到行为分析的主题传播使用真正的博客传播数据,并显示有一个明确的指示,以主题更好地遵循哪个模型,虽然结果是相当不敏感的模型选择的水平,讨论如何远和快,每个主题传播的学习参数值。

英文摘要:

One of the interesting and important problems of information diffusion over a large social network is to identify an appropriate model from a limited amount of diffusion information. There are two contrasting approaches to model information diffusion: a push type model known as Independent Cascade (IC) model and a pull type model known as Linear Threshold (LT) model. We extend these two models (called AsIC and AsLT in this paper) to incorporate asynchronous time delay and investigate 1) how they differ from or similar to each other in terms of information diffusion, 2) whether the model itself is learnable or not from the observed information diffusion data, and 3) which model is more appropriate to explain for a particular topic (information) to diffuse/propagate. We first show there can be variations with respect to how the time delay is modeled, and derive the likelihood of the observed data being generated for each model. Using one particular time delay model, we show the model parameters are learnable from a limited amount of observation. We then propose a method based on predictive accuracy by which to select a model which better explains the observed data. Extensive evaluations were performed. We first show using synthetic data with the network structures taken from real networks that there are considerable behavioral differences between the AsIC and the AsLT models, the proposed methods accurately and stably learn the model parameters, and identify the correct diffusion model from a limited amount of observation data. We next apply these methods to behavioral analysis of topic propagation using the real blog propagation data, and show there is a clear indication as to which topic better follows which model although the results are rather insensitive to the model selected at the level of discussing how far and fast each topic propagates from the learned parameter values.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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