论社会冲突的动力学：寻找黑天鹅
On the dynamics of social conflicts: looking for the Black Swan
摘要：
本文讨论了社会竞争的建模，可能导致极端冲突的发生。更准确地说，我们讨论的模型描述个人之间的竞争财富分配，再加上来自支持或反对政府的政治立场，可能会产生强烈的自我增强效应。后者可以被认为是被称为黑天鹅的大规模不可预测事件的早期阶段，尽管这里没有提供任何完全发展的黑天鹅的分析。我们的方法利用了主动粒子的动力学理论框架，根据博弈论工具对受试者之间的非线性相互作用进行建模。
英文摘要：
This paper deals with the modeling of social competition, possibly resulting in the onset of extreme conflicts. More precisely, we discuss models describing the interplay between individual competition for wealth distribution that, when coupled with political stances coming from support or opposition to a government, may give rise to strongly self-enhanced effects. The latter may be thought of as the early stages of massive, unpredictable events known as Black Swans, although no analysis of any fully-developed Black Swan is provided here. Our approach makes use of the framework of the kinetic theory for active particles, where nonlinear interactions among subjects are modeled according to game-theoretical tools.
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