石油勘探图模型的动态决策
Dynamic Decision Making for Graphical Models Applied to Oil Exploration
摘要：
这篇论文已被作者撤回。我们提出了一个框架，顺序决策问题描述的图形模型。该设置是由相关的离散随机变量与相关的成本或收入。在我们的例子中，因变量是钻井时的潜在结果（石油，天然气或干）。我们的目标是开发一个最佳的选择策略，采用了一个近似的动态规划方案内选择的效用函数。我们提出并比较不同的近似，从简单的迭代到更复杂的迭代方案，我们讨论了它们的计算特性。我们将我们的策略应用于石油勘探多个前景建模的有向无环图，和一个储层钻井决策问题建模的马尔可夫随机场。结果表明，所提出的策略明显改善了简单的直观结构，这是有用的，当选择勘探政策。
英文摘要：
This paper has been withdrawn by the authors. We present a framework for sequential decision making in problems described by graphical models. The setting is given by dependent discrete random variables with associated costs or revenues. In our examples, the dependent variables are the potential outcomes (oil, gas or dry) when drilling a petroleum well. The goal is to develop an optimal selection strategy that incorporates a chosen utility function within an approximated dynamic programming scheme. We propose and compare different approximations, from simple heuristics to more complex iterative schemes, and we discuss their computational properties. We apply our strategies to oil exploration over multiple prospects modeled by a directed acyclic graph, and to a reservoir drilling decision problem modeled by a Markov random field. The results show that the suggested strategies clearly improve the simpler intuitive constructions, and this is useful when selecting exploration policies.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
