Kalman smoothers reconstruct the state of a dynamical system starting from noisy output samples. While the classical estimator relies on quadratic penalization of process deviations and measurement errors, extensions that exploit Piecewise Linear Quadratic (PLQ) penalties have been recently proposed in the literature. These new formulations include smoothers robust with respect to outliers in the data, and smoothers that keep better track of fast system dynamics, e.g. jumps in the state values. In addition to L2, well known examples of PLQ penalties include the L1, Huber and Vapnik losses. In this paper, we use a dual representation for PLQ penalties to build a statistical modeling framework and a computational theory for Kalman smoothing.
We develop a statistical framework by establishing conditions required to interpret PLQ penalties as negative logs of true probability densities. Then, we present a computational framework, based on interior-point methods, that solves the Kalman smoothing problem with PLQ penalties and maintains the linear complexity in the size of the time series, just as in the L2 case. The framework presented extends the computational efficiency of the Mayne-Fraser and Rauch-Tung-Striebel algorithms to a much broader non-smooth setting, and includes many known robust and sparse smoothers as special cases.
Dynamic inference problems in autoregressive (AR/ARMA/ARIMA), exponential smoothing, and navigation are often formulated and solved using state-space models (SSM), which allow a range of statistical distributions to inform innovations and errors. In many applications the main goal is to identify not only the hidden state, but also additional unknown model parameters (e.g. AR coefficients or unknown dynamics). We show how to efficiently optimize over model parameters in SSM that use smooth process and measurement losses. Our approach is to project out state variables, obtaining a value function…
Identification of unexpectedly high values in a time series is useful for epidemiologists, economists, and other social scientists interested in the effect of an exposure spike on an outcome variable. However, the best method to identify spikes in time series is not known. This paper aims to fill this gap by testing the performance of several spike detection methods in a simulation setting. We created simulations parameterized by monthly violence rates in nine California cities that represented different series features, and randomly inserted spikes into the series. We then compared the abilit…
We propose an approximation to the forward-filter-backward-sampler (FFBS) algorithm for large-scale spatio-temporal smoothing. FFBS is commonly used in Bayesian statistics when working with linear Gaussian state-space models, but it requires inverting covariance matrices which have the size of the latent state vector. The computational burden associated with this operation effectively prohibits its applications in high-dimensional settings. We propose a scalable spatio-temporal FFBS approach based on the hierarchical Vecchia approximation of Gaussian processes, which has been previously succes…
In this paper, we present the optimization formulation of the Kalman filtering and smoothing problems, and use this perspective to develop a variety of extensions and applications. We first formulate classic Kalman smoothing as a least squares problem, highlight special structure, and show that the classic filtering and smoothing algorithms are equivalent to a particular algorithm for solving this problem. Once this equivalence is established, we present extensions of Kalman smoothing to systems with nonlinear process and measurement models, systems with linear and nonlinear inequality constra…
For oceanographic applications, probabilistic forecasts typically have to deal with i) high-dimensional complex models, and ii) very sparse spatial observations. In search-and-rescue operations at sea, for instance, the short-term predictions of drift trajectories are essential to efficiently define search areas, but in-situ buoy observations provide only very sparse point measurements, while the mission is ongoing. Statistically optimal forecasts, including consistent uncertainty statements, rely on Bayesian methods for data assimilation to make the best out of both the complex mathematical m…
Kalman filtering and smoothing algorithms are used in many areas, including tracking and navigation, medical applications, and financial trend filtering. One of the basic assumptions required to apply the Kalman smoothing framework is that error covariance matrices are known and given. In this paper, we study a general class of inference problems where covariance matrices can depend functionally on unknown parameters. In the Kalman framework, this allows modeling situations where covariance matrices may depend functionally on the state sequence being estimated. We present an extended formulati…
We introduce a class of quadratic support (QS) functions, many of which play a crucial role in a variety of applications, including machine learning, robust statistical inference, sparsity promotion, and Kalman smoothing. Well known examples include the l2, Huber, l1 and Vapnik losses. We build on a dual representation for QS functions using convex analysis, revealing the structure necessary for a QS function to be interpreted as the negative log of a probability density, and providing the foundation for statistical interpretation and analysis of QS loss functions. For a subclass of QS functio…
School of Engineering, the University of Tokyo（东京大学工程学院）；Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency（日本气象厅气象研究所）；RIKEN Center for Computational Science（理化学研究所计算科学中心）
Prediction of spatio-temporal chaotic systems is important in various fields, such as Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). While data assimilation methods have been applied in NWP, machine learning techniques, such as Reservoir Computing (RC), are recently recognized as promising tools to predict spatio-temporal chaotic systems. However, the sensitivity of the skill of the machine learning based prediction to the imperfectness of observations is unclear. In this study, we evaluate the skill of RC with noisy and sparsely distributed observations. We intensively compare the performances of RC and…
In this work we study the non-parametric reconstruction of spatio-temporal dynamical Gaussian processes (GPs) via GP regression from sparse and noisy data. GPs have been mainly applied to spatial regression where they represent one of the most powerful estimation approaches also thanks to their universal representing properties. Their extension to dynamical processes has been instead elusive so far since classical implementations lead to unscalable algorithms. We then propose a novel procedure to address this problem by coupling GP regression and Kalman filtering. In particular, assuming space…
State-space smoothing has found many applications in science and engineering. Under linear and Gaussian assumptions, smoothed estimates can be obtained using efficient recursions, for example Rauch-Tung-Striebel and Mayne-Fraser algorithms. Such schemes are equivalent to linear algebraic techniques that minimize a convex quadratic objective function with structure induced by the dynamic model. These classical formulations fall short in many important circumstances. For instance, smoothers obtained using quadratic penalties can fail when outliers are present in the data, and cannot track impuls…
Several variations of the Kalman filter algorithm, such as the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and the unscented Kalman filter (UKF), are widely used in science and engineering applications. In this paper, we introduce two algorithms of sparsity-based Kalman filters, namely the sparse UKF and the progressive EKF. The filters are designed specifically for problems with very high dimensions. Different from various types of ensemble Kalman filters (EnKFs) in which the error covariance is approximated using a set of dense ensemble vectors, the algorithms developed in this paper are based on sparse ma…
Kalman smoothing and block tridiagonal systems: new connections and numerical stability results
IBM T.J. Watson Research Center（IBM T.J.沃森研究中心）；Applied Physics Lab University of Washington（华盛顿大学应用物理实验室）；Department of Mathematics University of Washington（华盛顿大学数学系）；Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell’Informazione, University of Padova（帕多瓦大学信息工程系）
Enforcing sparse structure within learning has led to significant advances in the field of data-driven discovery of dynamical systems. However, such methods require access not only to time-series of the state of the dynamical system, but also to the time derivative. In many applications, the data are available only in the form of time-averages such as moments and autocorrelation functions. We propose a sparse learning methodology to discover the vector fields defining a (possibly stochastic or partial) differential equation, using only time-averaged statistics. Such a formulation of sparse lea…
This paper considers the problem of fitting the parameters of a Kalman smoother to data. We formulate the Kalman smoothing problem with missing measurements as a constrained least squares problem and provide an efficient method to solve it based on sparse linear algebra. We then introduce the Kalman smoother tuning problem, which seeks to find parameters that achieve low prediction error on held out measurements. We derive a Kalman smoother auto-tuning algorithm, which is based on the proximal gradient method, that finds good, if not the best, parameters for a given dataset. Central to our met…
We consider algorithms and recovery guarantees for the analysis sparse model in which the signal is sparse with respect to a highly coherent frame. We consider the use of a monotone version of the fast iterative shrinkage- thresholding algorithm (MFISTA) to solve the analysis sparse recovery problem. Since the proximal operator in MFISTA does not have a closed-form solution for the analysis model, it cannot be applied directly. Instead, we examine two alternatives based on smoothing and decomposition transformations that relax the original sparse recovery problem, and then implement MFISTA on …
Phase retrieval (PR) is an ill-conditioned inverse problem which can be found in various science and engineering applications. Assuming sparse priority over the signal of interest, recent algorithms have been developed to solve the phase retrieval problem. Some examples include SparseAltMinPhase (SAMP), Sparse Wirtinger flow (SWF) and Sparse Truncated Amplitude flow (SPARTA). However, the optimization cost functions of the mentioned algorithms are non-convex and non-smooth. In order to fix the non-smoothness of the cost function, the SPARTA method uses truncation thresholds to calculate a trun…
We study a hybrid conditional gradient - smoothing algorithm (HCGS) for solving composite convex optimization problems which contain several terms over a bounded set. Examples of these include regularization problems with several norms as penalties and a norm constraint. HCGS extends conditional gradient methods to cases with multiple nonsmooth terms, in which standard conditional gradient methods may be difficult to apply. The HCGS algorithm borrows techniques from smoothing proximal methods and requires first-order computations (subgradients and proximity operations). Unlike proximal methods…
We study the problem of estimating high-dimensional regression models regularized by a structured sparsity-inducing penalty that encodes prior structural information on either the input or output variables. We consider two widely adopted types of penalties of this kind as motivating examples: (1) the general overlapping-group-lasso penalty, generalized from the group-lasso penalty; and (2) the graph-guided-fused-lasso penalty, generalized from the fused-lasso penalty. For both types of penalties, due to their nonseparability and nonsmoothness, developing an efficient optimization method remain…
In this paper is proposed a novel incremental iterative Gauss-Newton-Markov-Kalman filter method for state estimation of dynamic models given noisy measurements. The mathematical formulation of the proposed filter is based on the construction of an optimal nonlinear map between the observable and parameter (state) spaces via a convergent sequence of linear maps obtained by successive linearisation of the observation operator in a Gauss-Newton-like form. To allow automatic linearisation of the dynamical system in a sparse form, the smoother is designed in a hierarchical setting such that the fo…
In this work, we consider the controllability of a discrete-time linear dynamical system with sparse control inputs. Sparsity constraints on the input arises naturally in networked systems, where activating each input variable adds to the cost of control. We derive algebraic necessary and sufficient conditions for ensuring controllability of a system with an arbitrary transfer matrix. The derived conditions can be verified in polynomial time complexity, unlike the more traditional Kalman-type rank tests. Further, we characterize the minimum number of input vectors required to satisfy the deriv…
Smoothing the Edges: Smooth Optimization for Sparse Regularization using Hadamard Overparametrization
Department of Statistics, LMU Munich（慕尼黑大学统计系）；Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML)（慕尼黑机器学习中心）；Institute of Computational Biology, Helmholtz Munich（亥姆霍兹慕尼黑计算生物学研究所）；Center for Computational Mathematics, Flatiron Institute（熨斗研究所计算数学中心）
Multi-Robot Relative Pose Estimation in SE(2) with Observability Analysis: A Comparison of Extended Kalman Filtering and Robust Pose Graph Optimization
In high dimensional sparse regression, pivotal estimators are estimators for which the optimal regularization parameter is independent of the noise level. The canonical pivotal estimator is the square-root Lasso, formulated along with its derivatives as a "non-smooth + non-smooth" optimization problem. Modern techniques to solve these include smoothing the datafitting term, to benefit from fast efficient proximal algorithms. In this work we show minimax sup-norm convergence rates for non smoothed and smoothed, single task and multitask square-root Lasso-type estimators. Thanks to our theoretic…
Virginia Tech（弗吉尼亚理工大学）；Computational Science Laboratory（计算科学实验室）
Data assimilation is a Bayesian inference process that obtains an enhanced understanding of a physical system of interest by fusing information from an inexact physics-based model, and from noisy sparse observations of reality. The multifidelity ensemble Kalman filter (MFEnKF) recently developed by the authors combines a full-order physical model and a hierarchy of reduced order surrogate models in order to increase the computational efficiency of data assimilation. The standard MFEnKF uses linear couplings between models, and is statistically optimal in case of Gaussian probability densities.…
