在修正的布朗和佩恩投票转换模型中模拟生态谬误的来源
Modelling sources of ecological fallacy within a revised Brown and Payne model of voting transitions
摘要：
我们提出了一个模型的投票行为的基础上的一个版本的聚合过度分散的多项分布，相对于一个类似的模型\citet{BP86}，我们的模型是基于更现实的假设和自由的某些缺点，以前的模型。我们表明，在这个模型中，它是可能的，以测试某些混杂效应，由于可观察到的协变量在总体水平上测量，这种影响，如果忽略，可能会导致重大的偏见，在两个接近的时间选举，一种现象被称为{PDMATHAMN生态谬误}的投票决定之间的估计关系。在米兰市市长选举后的全民公决申请被解释为贝卢斯科尼政府的失败，被用作一个例子。
英文摘要：
We present a model of voting behaviour based on a version of aggregated overdispersed multinomial distributions; relative to a similar model by \citet{BP86}, our model is based on more realistic assumptions and free from certain shortcomings of the previous model. We show that, within this model, it is possible to test for certain confounding effects due to observable covariates measured at the aggregate level; such effects, if ignored, might cause substantial bias in the estimated relation between voting decisions in two close in time elections, a phenomenon known as {\em Ecological Fallacy}. An application to a referendum following an election for the major in the town of Milan, which was interpreted as a defeat for the Berlusconi gouvernment, is used as an illustration.
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