高寄主密度有利于更大的毒力：一个基于多型分支过程的寄生虫-寄主动态模型
High host density favors greater virulence: a model of parasite-host dynamics based on multi-type branching processes
摘要：
我们使用一个多类型的连续时间马尔可夫分支过程模型来描述两种类型的寄生虫，可以在一个共同的宿主种群相互突变的传播动力学。而不是使用一个单一的毒力特性，这是典型的大多数传染病的数学模型，我们的模型使用两个特征的组合：致死率和传播性。这使得该模型能够再现经验观察到的事实，即宿主密度的增加可以导致毒性更强的病原体类型的流行。我们提供了一些数值说明，并讨论了包含主机人口的外壳的大小对我们的模型中的遭遇率的影响，在确定什么样的病原体类型将最终占上风发挥了关键作用。我们还提出了一个多级扩展的模型的情况下，有几个人口和寄生虫可以从其中一个传播到另一个。
英文摘要：
We use a multitype continuous time Markov branching process model to describe the dynamics of the spread of parasites of two types that can mutate into each other in a common host population. Instead of using a single virulence characteristic which is typical of most mathematical models for infectious diseases, our model uses a combination of two characteristics: lethality and transmissibility. This makes the model capable of reproducing the empirically observed fact that the increase in the host density can lead to the prevalence of the more virulent pathogen type. We provide some numerical illustrations and discuss the effects of the size of the enclosure containing the host population on the encounter rate in our model that plays the key role in determining what pathogen type will eventually prevail. We also present a multistage extension of the model to situations where there are several populations and parasites can be transmitted from one of them to another.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
