关于地震活动性模型的检验
On the Testing of Seismicity Models
摘要：
最近，地震可预测性研究合作实验室（CSEP）开发了一种基于可能性的方法，以测试和排序地震活动性模型。我们分析这种方法的危险分析的可能应用的角度来看。我们得出的结论是，模型试验可以更有效地集中在地震活动性分布的一些整体特征。这是实现的可能性框架，但与经济和物理上合理的相空间粗化，或通过选择一个合适的措施，在这个空间中的经验和模型地震活动率之间的密切程度。
英文摘要：
Recently a likelihood-based methodology has been developed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) with a view to testing and ranking seismicity models. We analyze this approach from the standpoint of possible applications to hazard analysis. We arrive at the conclusion that model testing can be made more efficient by focusing on some integral characteristics of the seismicity distribution. This is achieved either in the likelihood framework but with economical and physically reasonable coarsening of the phase space or by choosing a suitable measure of closeness between empirical and model seismicity rate in this space.
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