博客圈突发事件中人类集体行为的实证分析
Empirical analysis of collective human behavior for extraordinary events in blogosphere
摘要：
为了揭示集体人类动态的潜在机制，我们调查了超过18亿个博客条目并观察了单词出现的统计特性。我们关注的是那些表现出动态增长和衰退的单词，这些单词在某一天有分化的趋势。经过仔细的预处理和拟合，我们发现幂律近似的增长和衰减的各种指数值之间的-0.1和-2.5的函数形式。我们还观察到新闻词的频率突然增加，并遵循幂律衰减。为了解释这些动态，我们提出了一个简单的模型，发布博客涉及一个关键字，其有效性直接从数据检查。该模型表明，博主不仅对最新的博客数量做出反应，而且还受到分歧日的最后期限压力。我们的实证结果可以用来预测博客数量的提前和估计期间恢复到正常的波动水平。
英文摘要：
To uncover underlying mechanism of collective human dynamics, we survey more than 1.8 billion blog entries and observe the statistical properties of word appearances. We focus on words that show dynamic growth and decay with a tendency to diverge on a certain day. After careful pretreatment and fitting method, we found power laws generally approximate the functional forms of growth and decay with various exponents values between -0.1 and -2.5. We also observe news words whose frequency increase suddenly and decay following power laws. In order to explain these dynamics, we propose a simple model of posting blogs involving a keyword, and its validity is checked directly from the data. The model suggests that bloggers are not only responding to the latest number of blogs but also suffering deadline pressure from the divergence day. Our empirical results can be used for predicting the number of blogs in advance and for estimating the period to return to the normal fluctuation level.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
