微扰理论不确定性的有意义表征
Meaningful characterisation of perturbative theoretical uncertainties
摘要：
考虑了扰动级数的不确定性估计的有意义置信度问题。我们分析的假设是隐含在传统的估计使用重正化尺度变化。然后，我们制定了一个贝叶斯模型，给出等价的初始假设，允许一个扰动理论的不确定性，在一个严格的方式在一个可信区间的其余部分的系列。我们在计算e+e- ->强子过程的QCD修正的简单情况下将其结果与传统的不确定性估计进行了比较。我们发现了类似的结果，但具有重要的概念差异。这项工作代表了在高能唯象学中使用的微扰计算的理论不确定性的更全面和严格的处理方向的第一步。
英文摘要：
We consider the problem of assigning a meaningful degree of belief to uncertainty estimates of perturbative series. We analyse the assumptions which are implicit in the conventional estimates made using renormalisation scale variations. We then formulate a Bayesian model that, given equivalent initial hypotheses, allows one to characterise a perturbative theoretical uncertainty in a rigorous way in terms of a credibility interval for the remainder of the series. We compare its outcome to the conventional uncertainty estimates in the simple case of the calculation of QCD corrections to the e+e- -> hadrons process. We find comparable results, but with important conceptual differences. This work represents a first step in the direction of a more comprehensive and rigorous handling of theoretical uncertainties in perturbative calculations used in high energy phenomenology.
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