多个温度代用指标的统计分析：过去1000年地表温度的重建可靠吗？
A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?
摘要：
根据树木年轮、冰芯和其他自然替代物预测历史温度是一项困难的工作。代理数据与温度的相关性较弱，代理数据的数量远大于目标数据点的数量。此外，数据包含复杂的空间和时间依赖性结构，这些结构不容易用简单的模型捕获。在本文中，我们评估了这种重建的可靠性和对各种空模型的统计意义。我们发现，代理不预测温度显着优于独立于温度产生的随机序列。此外，在预测温度方面表现相似的各种模型规格产生了极其不同的历史回溯。最后，这些代用指标似乎无法预测1990年代样本内或毗连的保留区块温度的高水平和急剧上升，因此，如果这些现象实际上发生在几百年前，人们怀疑代用指标是否有能力预测这些现象。我们提出了我们自己的重建北半球平均年陆地温度在过去的一千年，评估其可靠性，并比较它与气候科学文献。我们的模型提供了一个类似的重建，但有更广泛的标准误，反映了弱信号和大的不确定性，在这种设置。
英文摘要：
Predicting historic temperatures based on tree rings, ice cores, and other natural proxies is a difficult endeavor. The relationship between proxies and temperature is weak and the number of proxies is far larger than the number of target data points. Furthermore, the data contain complex spatial and temporal dependence structures which are not easily captured with simple models. In this paper, we assess the reliability of such reconstructions and their statistical significance against various null models. We find that the proxies do not predict temperature significantly better than random series generated independently of temperature. Furthermore, various model specifications that perform similarly at predicting temperature produce extremely different historical backcasts. Finally, the proxies seem unable to forecast the high levels of and sharp run-up in temperature in the 1990s either in-sample or from contiguous holdout blocks, thus casting doubt on their ability to predict such phenomena if in fact they occurred several hundred years ago. We propose our own reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere average annual land temperature over the last millennium, assess its reliability, and compare it to those from the climate science literature. Our model provides a similar reconstruction but has much wider standard errors, reflecting the weak signal and large uncertainty encountered in this setting.
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