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arXiv 1104.2131astro-ph.EP
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土卫六湖泊的化学成分:不确定性和可变性的来源

Titan's lakes chemical composition: sources of uncertainties and variability

D. Cordier, O. Mousis, J. I. Lunine, S. Lebonnois, P. Rannou, P. Lavvas, L. Q. Lobo, A. G. M. Ferreira

摘要:

2004年至2007年期间,卡西尼号航天器的仪器在泰坦的极地地区发现了碳氢化合物湖。我们已经开发了一个湖泊大气平衡模型,允许这些液体区域的化学成分的测定。该模型是基于不确定的热力学数据和降水率的有机物种预测将存在于湖泊和海洋的空间和时间变化。在这里,我们探讨和讨论这些不确定性和变化的影响。通过蒙特卡罗模拟模拟了与热力学数据有关的误差和不确定性。全球环流模式(GCM)也被用来研究南极和北极之间由于降水率的差异而产生的化学不对称性的可能性。我们发现,在液相中的化合物的摩尔分数有一个高的灵敏度作为输入的热力学数据,特别是摩尔体积和蒸发的蒸发。当我们结合所有考虑的不确定性,得到的摩尔分数的范围是相当大的(高达~8500%),但值的分布是窄的。根据所考虑的化合物,相对标准偏差保持在10%~300%之间。与其他不确定性和可变性来源相比,由表面压力变化引起的偏差显然可以忽略不计,保持在几个百分点到~ 20%的数量级。此外,北极和南极湖泊的组成没有显着差异。由于这里采用的正规溶液的理论是敏感的热力学数据,并不适合极性分子,如HCN和CH 3CN,我们的工作强烈强调需要实验模拟和改进土卫六的大气模型。

英文摘要:

Between 2004 and 2007 the instruments of the CASSINI spacecraft discovered hydrocarbon lakes in the polar regions of Titan. We have developed a lake-atmosphere equilibrium model allowing the determination of the chemical composition of these liquid areas. The model is based on uncertain thermodynamic data and precipitation rates of organic species predicted to be present in the lakes and seas that are subject to spatial and temporal variations. Here we explore and discuss the influence of these uncertainties and variations. The errors and uncertainties relevant to thermodynamic data are simulated via Monte-Carlo simulations. Global Circulation Models (GCM) are also employed in order to investigate the possibility of chemical asymmetry between the south and the north poles, due to differences in precipitation rates. We find that mole fractions of compounds in the liquid phase have a high sensitivity to thermodynamic data used as inputs, in particular molar volumes and enthalpies of vaporization. When we combine all considered uncertainties, the ranges of obtained mole fractions are rather large (up to ~8500%) but the distributions of values are narrow. The relative standard deviations remain between 10% and ~300% depending on the compound considered. Compared to other sources of uncertainties and variability, deviation caused by surface pressure variations are clearly negligible, remaining of the order of a few percent up to ~20%. Moreover no significant difference is found between the composition of lakes located in north and south poles. Because the theory of regular solutions employed here is sensitive to thermodynamic data and is not suitable for polar molecules such as HCN and CH3CN, our work strongly underlines the need for experimental simulations and the improvement of Titan's atmospheric models.

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