流行病中接种疫苗所需时间的理论框架和经验模型
Theoretical Framework and Empirical Modeling for Time Required to Vaccinate a Population in an Epidemic
摘要:
本文描述了一种方法,以了解所需的时间接种疫苗的病毒总数以及亚群。作为示范,提供了一个基于模型的估计,在印度接种H1N1疫苗所需的时间,鉴于其行政困难。我们证明了新的定理的时间函数中定义的文件。这些结果有助于规划未来的流行病。在三个亚群(村庄、乡镇和城镇)中,接种全部高危人群所需的天数分别为84、89和88天。各州在卫生基础设施和提供疫苗的能力方面存在差异,因此需要根据各州的个别表现重新评估国家估计数。
英文摘要:
The paper describes a method to understand time required to vaccinate against viruses in total as well as subpopulations. As a demonstration, a model based estimate for time required to vaccinate H1N1 in India, given its administrative difficulties is provided. We have proved novel theorems for the time functions defined in the paper. Such results are useful in planning for future epidemics. The number of days required to vaccinate entire high risk population in three subpopulations (villages, tehsils and towns) are noted to be 84, 89 and 88 respectively. There exists state wise disparities in the health infrastructure and capacities to deliver vaccines and hence national estimates need to be re-evaluated based on individual performances in the states.
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