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arXiv 1102.2952math.STstat.TH
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高维线性模型的稠密信号、线性估计器和样本外预测

Dense Signals, Linear Estimators, and Out-of-Sample Prediction for High-Dimensional Linear Models

Lee Dicker

摘要:

受高维数据分析中密集(非稀疏)信号问题的启发,我们研究了与高维线性模型的三种流行线性估计相关的无条件样本外预测误差(预测风险):岭回归估计,普通最小二乘(OLS)估计的标量倍数(称为James-Stein收缩估计)和边际回归估计。本文的结果不需要对稀疏性作任何假设,并意味着:(i)如果总体预测变量协方差的先验信息是可用的,则岭估计优于OLS、James-Stein和边际估计;(ii)如果总体预测变量协方差的先验信息是未知的,则James-Stein估计可能是岭估计的有效替代;以及(iii)边际估计量对于样本外预测具有严重缺陷。本文研究了估计量的有限样本性质和渐近性质。虽然各种渐近制度被认为是,我们专注于设置的预测的数量大致成正比的观察。最后,这里提出的结果提供了新的和详细的实践指导,几个众所周知的非稀疏方法的高维线性模型。

英文摘要:

Motivated by questions about dense (non-sparse) signals in high-dimensional data analysis, we study the unconditional out-of-sample prediction error (predictive risk) associated with three popular linear estimators for high-dimensional linear models: ridge regression estimators, scalar multiples of the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator (referred to as James-Stein shrinkage estimators), and marginal regression estimators. The results in this paper require no assumptions about sparsity and imply: (i) if prior information about the population predictor covariance is available, then the ridge estimator outperforms the OLS, James-Stein, and marginal estimators; (ii) if little is known about the population predictor covariance, then the James-Stein estimator may be an effective alternative to the ridge estimator; and (iii) the marginal estimator has serious deficiencies for out-of-sample prediction. Both finite sample and asymptotic properties of the estimators are studied in this paper. Though various asymptotic regimes are considered, we focus on the setting where the number of predictors is roughly proportional to the number of observations. Ultimately, the results presented here provide new and detailed practical guidance regarding several well-known non-sparse methods for high-dimensional linear models.

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