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arXiv 1102.1938astro-ph.IMastro-ph.EP
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大规模“信息传递”的成本和困难,以及对潜在风险进行国际辩论的必要性

Costs and Difficulties of Large-Scale 'Messaging', and the Need for International Debate on Potential Risks

John Billingham, James Benford

摘要:

我们主张就社会和技术问题进行国际磋商,以解决风险问题,并暂停未来的METI传输,直到这些问题得到解决。相反,我们建议继续通过监听进行SETI,没有固有的风险,同时使用强大的新搜索系统,以相同的成本提供比METI更好的信标和消息检测总概率,并且不需要长时间的强制性等待响应。实际上,信标是昂贵的。根据最近关于无线电联系经济学的研究,我们提供了SETI搜索当前标准的替代方案。历史上从地球泄漏的信息对于可靠的接收系统来说是无法检测到的。到目前为止,这些信号(“信息”)都很微弱,即使是很近的恒星也不太可能被探测到。未来的空间微波和激光动力系统可能会更加明显。

英文摘要:

We advocate international consultations on societal and technical issues to address the risk problem, and a moratorium on future METI transmissions until such issues are resolved. Instead, we recommend continuing to conduct SETI by listening, with no innate risk, while using powerful new search systems to give a better total probability of detection of beacons and messages than METI for the same cost, and with no need for a long obligatory wait for a response. Realistically, beacons are costly. In light of recent work on the economics of contact by radio, we offer alternatives to the current standard of SETI searches. Historical leakage from Earth has been undetectable as messages for credible receiver systems. Transmissions ('messages') to date are faint and very unlikely to be detected, even by very nearby stars. Future space microwave and laser power systems will likely be more visible.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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