CPO预测：准确性评估和对UT1密集结果的影响
CPO prediction: accuracy assessment and impact on UT1 intensive results
摘要：
UT 1 Intensives结果在很大程度上取决于数据处理期间使用的天极偏移（CPO）模型。由于准确的CPO值可延迟两到四周获得，因此CPO预测必须应用于UT 1密集数据分析，并且预测中的误差可能影响操作UT 1准确度。本文利用2007-2009年IERS和PUL的实际预报结果对CPO预报的真实精度进行了评估。此外，业务处理的结果进行了分析，调查EOP预测误差的快速UT 1结果的实际影响。据发现，CPO预测误差的影响是在几微秒的水平，而在极运动预测的不准确性的影响可能是大约一个订单更大的超快速UT 1的结果。如果IERS快速解决方案能够更频繁地更新，这种情况可以得到改善。
英文摘要：
The UT1 Intensives results heavily depend on the celestial pole offset (CPO) model used during data processing. Since accurate CPO values are available with delay from two to four weeks, CPO predictions are necessarily applied to the UT1 intensive data analysis, and errors in predictions can influence the operational UT1 accuracy. In this papers the real accuracy of CPO prediction is assessed using the actual IERS and PUL predictions made in 2007-2009. Also, results of operational processing was analyzed to investigate the actual impact of EOP prediction errors on the rapid UT1 results. It was found that the impact of CPO prediction errors is at a level of several microseconds, whereas the impact of the inaccuracy in the polar motion prediction may be about one order larger for ultra-rapid UT1 results. The situation can be amended if the IERS Rapid solution will be updated more frequently.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
