旅行者1号和2号在缩小和挤压的日光层中
Voyagers 1 and 2 in a Shrunken and Squashed Heliosphere
摘要：
我们已经扩展了我们早期对日光层终止冲击（HTS）距离的计算-涵盖了从1977年到2005年的V1和V2发射期间-从2006年到2011年。在后一个时期，太阳风速度、冲压压力和磁场下降到近代历史上的最低水平，与2008-2009年太阳黑子最小值有关。高温超导体的距离也相应地减小了，因此，2004年底高温超导体在94天文单位处穿过的V1，现在预计将在2011年初到达高温超导体的距离约为80天文单位，此时高温超导体的距离预计将达到最小值。类似地，2007年中期在84 AU处被HTS穿过的V2将在2011年初到达HTS，距离只有74 AU。2011年初，这些距离比V1和V2最初到达HTS的距离小约15%。到太阳顶的距离（HP）更不确定，但最近的计算将其平衡距离定位在HTS距离的1.4-1.6倍之间。如果再给HP一年时间来达到相对于HTS的平衡最小距离，则意味着假设该距离保持比HTS距离大的恒定分数，HP距离将在2012年初V1时达到其最小距离（1.4-1.6）x 80 AU = 112-128 AU。此时，V1将在~120 AU的距离处，因此，V1有可能在2012.0 \pm 1年时穿过HP并进入星际空间。如果在这段时间内没有发生穿越，那么V1不太可能在2016年之前到达这个定义边界，因为预计HTS和HP会向它们更正常的距离85-96和~120 - 140 AU的方向运动，与新的太阳黑子周期的最大值相一致。
英文摘要：
We have extended our earlier calculations of the distance to the Heliospheric Termination Shock (HTS) - which covered the period from the launch of V1 and V2 in 1977 to 2005 - to the period from 2006 to 2011. During this latter period the solar wind speed, ram pressure and magnetic field decreased to the lowest levels in recent history, related to the sunspot minimum in 2008-2009. The HTS distance has decreased correspondingly so that V1, which was crossed by the HTS at 94 AU in late 2004, would now, in early 2011, be expected to reach the HTS at a distance ~80 AU, when the HTS distance would be expected to be at its minimum. Similarly V2, which was crossed by the HTS at 84 AU in mid 2007, would, in early 2011, reach the HTS at a distance of only 74 AU. These distances, in early 2011, are ~15% less than those at which V1 and V2 initially reached the HTS. The distance to the Heliopause (HP) is more uncertain but recent calculations place its equilibrium distance at between 1.4-1.6 times the HTS distance. Allowing for an additional 1 year for the HP to reach its equilibrium minimum distance relative to the HTS would mean that, assuming this distance remains a constant fraction larger than the HTS distance, the HP distance would be at its minimum distance of (1.4-1.6) x 80 AU = 112-128 AU at V1 in early 2012. At this time V1 will be at a distance of ~120 AU so that there is a possibility that V1 could cross the HP and enter interstellar space at the time 2012.0 \pm 1 year. If the crossing does not happen during this time period, then it is unlikely that V1 will reach this defining boundary before about 2016 because of the expected outward motion of the HTS and the HP towards their more normal distances of 85-96 and ~120 -140 AU coincident with the maximum of the new sunspot cycle.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
