天极运动预报精度分析
Analysis of the Accuracy of Prediction of the Celestial Pole Motion
摘要：
由全球网络进行的VLBI观测提供了确定天极位置的岁差章动角的最精确值;通常，这些结果在观测后两至四周即可获得。因此，诸如卫星导航系统、世界时的操作确定和空间导航的许多应用使用对天极坐标的预测。在这方面，岁差章动角的预测精度的基础上获得的观测数据在过去的三年中，第一次进行了分析，使用三个经验章动模型-即，在美国海军天文台，巴黎天文台，普尔科沃天文台开发的。分析表明，最后一个模型在预测天极坐标方面具有最好的精度。该模型对一个月的预报均方根误差小于100微弧秒。
英文摘要：
VLBI observations carried out by global networks provide the most accurate values of the precession-nutation angles determining the position of the celestial pole; as a rule, these results become available two to four weeks after the observations. Therefore, numerous applications, such as satellite navigation systems, operational determination of Universal Time, and space navigation, use predictions of the coordinates of the celestial pole. In connection with this, the accuracy of predictions of the precession- nutation angles based on observational data obtained over the last three years is analyzed for the first time, using three empiric nutation models---namely, those developed at the US Naval Observatory, the Paris Observatory, and the Pulkovo Observatory. This analysis shows that the last model has the best of accuracy in predicting the coordinates of the celestial pole. The rms error for a one-month prediction proposed by this model is below 100 microarcsecond.
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