减少CO2的人类发展框架
A Human Development Framework for CO2 Reductions
摘要：
虽然呼吁发展中国家参与减少二氧化碳排放的努力，以避免危险的气候变化，但拟议的减少计划对发展中国家人类发展标准的影响仍然是一个有争议的问题。我们表明，人类发展指数（HDI）与化石燃料燃烧的人均二氧化碳排放量之间存在正相关且随时间变化的相关性。采用这一经验关系，推断人类发展指数，并使用三种人口情景，发展中国家达到特定人类发展指数阈值所需的累积CO2排放量进行评估后，发展作为一个单一的方法（DAU）。如果目前的人口和发展趋势保持下去，我们估计，到2050年，约85%的世界人口将生活在人类发展指数高（高于0.8）的国家。特别是，据估计，2000年至2050年期间，104个发展中国家在2000年的发展需要300千兆吨的二氧化碳累积排放量。这一数值代表了之前计算的将全球变暖限制在2°C的CO2预算的20%至30%。这些制约因素和结果被纳入了一个二氧化碳减排框架，该框架涉及各国气候行动的四个领域。该框架为发展中国家保留了一条公平的排放路径，通过与人类发展指数成比例的国别减排率指数，使发展中国家得以继续发展，以便在达到特定发展阈值后保持2°C的目标。根据这一方法，到2050年，全球累计排放量估计为850至1100 Gt二氧化碳。这些数值在将全球气温限制在2°C的排放不确定性范围内。
英文摘要：
Although developing countries are called to participate in CO2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world's population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300Gt of cumulative CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20% to 30% of previously calculated CO2 budgets limiting global warming to 2°C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2°C target after a particular development threshold is reached. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100Gt of CO2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2°C.
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