先驱者与滞后者：博客网络的语义时间关系分析
Precursors and Laggards: An Analysis of Semantic Temporal Relationships on a Blog Network
摘要：
我们探索的假设，它是可能的，以获得信息的动态博客网络通过分析博客之间的时间关系在语义层面上，这种类型的分析增加了知识，可以通过研究网络只在结构层面上的URL链接提取。我们提出了一个算法来自动检测细粒度的讨论主题，其特征在于n-gram和时间间隔。然后，我们提出了一个概率模型来估计的时间关系，博客彼此。我们将博客A相对于博客B的先驱分数定义为A在B之前进入新主题的概率，不考虑不对称发帖率所产生的影响。网络级指标的前兆和落后的行为来自这些二元前兆分数估计。这个模型被用来分析法国的政治博客网络。将分数与传统的链接度度量进行比较。我们深入了解这个网络上的主题参与的动态，以及前体/落后者和链接行为之间的关系。我们在法国博客圈专家的帮助下验证和分析结果。最后，我们提出了可能的应用程序的改进搜索引擎排名算法。
英文摘要：
We explore the hypothesis that it is possible to obtain information about the dynamics of a blog network by analysing the temporal relationships between blogs at a semantic level, and that this type of analysis adds to the knowledge that can be extracted by studying the network only at the structural level of URL links. We present an algorithm to automatically detect fine-grained discussion topics, characterized by n-grams and time intervals. We then propose a probabilistic model to estimate the temporal relationships that blogs have with one another. We define the precursor score of blog A in relation to blog B as the probability that A enters a new topic before B, discounting the effect created by asymmetric posting rates. Network-level metrics of precursor and laggard behavior are derived from these dyadic precursor score estimations. This model is used to analyze a network of French political blogs. The scores are compared to traditional link degree metrics. We obtain insights into the dynamics of topic participation on this network, as well as the relationship between precursor/laggard and linking behaviors. We validate and analyze results with the help of an expert on the French blogosphere. Finally, we propose possible applications to the improvement of search engine ranking algorithms.
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