In this paper the sequential prediction problem with expert advice is considered for the case where losses of experts suffered at each step cannot be bounded in advance. We present some modification of Kalai and Vempala algorithm of following the perturbed leader where weights depend on past losses of the experts. New notions of a volume and a scaled fluctuation of a game are introduced. We present a probabilistic algorithm protected from unrestrictedly large one-step losses. This algorithm has the optimal performance in the case when the scaled fluctuations of one-step losses of experts of the pool tend to zero.
When applying aggregating strategies to Prediction with Expert Advice, the learning rate must be adaptively tuned. The natural choice of sqrt(complexity/current loss) renders the analysis of Weighted Majority derivatives quite complicated. In particular, for arbitrary weights there have been no results proven so far. The analysis of the alternative "Follow the Perturbed Leader" (FPL) algorithm from Kalai & Vempala (2003) (based on Hannan's algorithm) is easier. We derive loss bounds for adaptive learning rate and both finite expert classes with uniform weights and countable expert classes with…
We study the problem of online learning with non-convex losses, where the learner has access to an offline optimization oracle. We show that the classical Follow the Perturbed Leader (FTPL) algorithm achieves optimal regret rate of $O(T^{-1/2})$ in this setting. This improves upon the previous best-known regret rate of $O(T^{-1/3})$ for FTPL. We further show that an optimistic variant of FTPL achieves better regret bounds when the sequence of losses encountered by the learner is `predictable'.
When applying aggregating strategies to Prediction with Expert Advice, the learning rate must be adaptively tuned. The natural choice of sqrt(complexity/current loss) renders the analysis of Weighted Majority derivatives quite complicated. In particular, for arbitrary weights there have been no results proven so far. The analysis of the alternative "Follow the Perturbed Leader" (FPL) algorithm from Kalai (2003} (based on Hannan's algorithm) is easier. We derive loss bounds for adaptive learning rate and both finite expert classes with uniform weights and countable expert classes with arbitrary…
We present a new optimization-theoretic approach to analyzing Follow-the-Leader style algorithms, particularly in the setting where perturbations are used as a tool for regularization. We show that adding a strongly convex penalty function to the decision rule and adding stochastic perturbations to data correspond to deterministic and stochastic smoothing operations, respectively. We establish an equivalence between "Follow the Regularized Leader" and "Follow the Perturbed Leader" up to the smoothness properties. This intuition leads to a new generic analysis framework that recovers and improv…
Game-theoretic models of learning are a powerful set of models that optimize multi-objective architectures. Among these models are zero-sum architectures that have inspired adversarial learning frameworks. An important shortcoming of these zeros-sum architectures is that gradient-based training leads to weak convergence and cyclic dynamics. We propose a novel follow the leader training algorithm for zeros-sum architectures that guarantees convergence to mixed Nash equilibrium without cyclic behaviors. It is a special type of follow the perturbed leader algorithm where perturbations are the res…
In an online decision problem, one makes decisions often with a pool of decision sequence called experts but without knowledge of the future. After each step, one pays a cost based on the decision and observed rate. One reasonal goal would be to perform as well as the best expert in the pool. The modern and well-known way to attain this goal is the algorithm of exponential weighting. However, recently, another algorithm called follow the perturbed leader is developed and achieved about the same performance. In our work, we first show the properties shared in common by the two algorithms which …
We consider the problem of online learning and its application to solving minimax games. For the online learning problem, Follow the Perturbed Leader (FTPL) is a widely studied algorithm which enjoys the optimal $O(T^{1/2})$ worst-case regret guarantee for both convex and nonconvex losses. In this work, we show that when the sequence of loss functions is predictable, a simple modification of FTPL which incorporates optimism can achieve better regret guarantees, while retaining the optimal worst-case regret guarantee for unpredictable sequences. A key challenge in obtaining these tighter regret…
Adaptive Learning Rates with Surrogate Probability for Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader
Korea Institute of Science and Technology（韩国科学技术院）；Kyoto University（京都大学）；RIKEN AIP（理化学研究所AIP）；The University of Tokyo（东京大学）；University of Science and Technology（科学技术大学）
Tsinghua University（清华大学）；University of Southern California（南加利福尼亚大学）
We consider regret minimization for Adversarial Markov Decision Processes (AMDPs), where the loss functions are changing over time and adversarially chosen, and the learner only observes the losses for the visited state-action pairs (i.e., bandit feedback). While there has been a surge of studies on this problem using Online-Mirror-Descent (OMD) methods, very little is known about the Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader (FTPL) methods, which are usually computationally more efficient and also easier to implement since it only requires solving an offline planning problem. Motivated by this, we take a c…
We design and analyze algorithms for online linear optimization that have optimal regret and at the same time do not need to know any upper or lower bounds on the norm of the loss vectors. Our algorithms are instances of the Follow the Regularized Leader (FTRL) and Mirror Descent (MD) meta-algorithms. We achieve adaptiveness to the norms of the loss vectors by scale invariance, i.e., our algorithms make exactly the same decisions if the sequence of loss vectors is multiplied by any positive constant. The algorithm based on FTRL works for any decision set, bounded or unbounded. For unbounded de…
We tackle the problem of online optimization with a general, possibly unbounded, loss function. It is well known that when the loss is bounded, the exponentially weighted aggregation strategy (EWA) leads to a regret in $\sqrt{T}$ after $T$ steps. In this paper, we study a generalized aggregation strategy, where the weights no longer depend exponentially on the losses. Our strategy is based on Follow The Regularized Leader (FTRL): we minimize the expected losses plus a regularizer, that is here a $ϕ$-divergence. When the regularizer is the Kullback-Leibler divergence, we obtain EWA as a special…
Institute for Information Transmission Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences（俄罗斯科学院信息传输问题研究所）
The games of prediction with expert advice are considered in this paper. We present some modification of Kalai and Vempala algorithm of following the perturbed leader for the case of unrestrictedly large one-step gains. We show that in general case the cumulative gain of any probabilistic prediction algorithm can be much worse than the gain of some expert of the pool. Nevertheless, we give the lower bound for this cumulative gain in general case and construct a universal algorithm which has the optimal performance; we also prove that in case when one-step gains of experts of the pool have ``li…
McGill University（麦吉尔大学）；ICREA；Pompeu Fabra University（庞培法布拉大学）；Budapest University of Technology and Economics（布达佩斯技术与经济大学）；Computer and Automation Research Institute of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences（匈牙利科学院计算机与自动化研究所）
We propose a version of the follow-the-perturbed-leader online prediction algorithm in which the cumulative losses are perturbed by independent symmetric random walks. The forecaster is shown to achieve an expected regret of the optimal order O(sqrt(n log N)) where n is the time horizon and N is the number of experts. More importantly, it is shown that the forecaster changes its prediction at most O(sqrt(n log N)) times, in expectation. We also extend the analysis to online combinatorial optimization and show that even in this more general setting, the forecaster rarely switches between expert…
University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；Microsoft Research（微软研究院）
We show a principled way of deriving online learning algorithms from a minimax analysis. Various upper bounds on the minimax value, previously thought to be non-constructive, are shown to yield algorithms. This allows us to seamlessly recover known methods and to derive new ones. Our framework also captures such "unorthodox" methods as Follow the Perturbed Leader and the R^2 forecaster. We emphasize that understanding the inherent complexity of the learning problem leads to the development of algorithms. We define local sequential Rademacher complexities and associated algorithms that allow us…
In this note, we present a version of the Thompson sampling algorithm for the problem of online linear generalization with full information (i.e., the experts setting), studied by Kalai and Vempala, 2005. The algorithm uses a Gaussian prior and time-varying Gaussian likelihoods, and we show that it essentially reduces to Kalai and Vempala's Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader strategy, with exponentially distributed noise replaced by Gaussian noise. This implies sqrt(T) regret bounds for Thompson sampling (with time-varying likelihood) for online learning with full information.
We consider online learning when the time horizon is unknown. We apply a minimax analysis, beginning with the fixed horizon case, and then moving on to two unknown-horizon settings, one that assumes the horizon is chosen randomly according to some known distribution, and the other which allows the adversary full control over the horizon. For the random horizon setting with restricted losses, we derive a fully optimal minimax algorithm. And for the adversarial horizon setting, we prove a nontrivial lower bound which shows that the adversary obtains strictly more power than when the horizon is f…
We propose a framework for ensuring safe behavior of a reinforcement learning agent when the reward function may be difficult to specify. In order to do this, we rely on the existence of demonstrations from expert policies, and we provide a theoretical framework for the agent to optimize in the space of rewards consistent with its existing knowledge. We propose two methods to solve the resulting optimization: an exact ellipsoid-based method and a method in the spirit of the "follow-the-perturbed-leader" algorithm. Our experiments demonstrate the behavior of our algorithm in both discrete and c…
Department of Computer Science, Princeton University（普林斯顿大学计算机科学系）；Google AI（谷歌人工智能）
In many online learning problems the computational bottleneck for gradient-based methods is the projection operation. For this reason, in many problems the most efficient algorithms are based on the Frank-Wolfe method, which replaces projections by linear optimization. In the general case, however, online projection-free methods require more iterations than projection-based methods: the best known regret bound scales as $T^{3/4}$. Despite significant work on various variants of the Frank-Wolfe method, this bound has remained unchanged for a decade. In this paper we give an efficient projection…
We propose a sample-efficient alternative for importance weighting for situations where one only has sample access to the probability distribution that generates the observations. Our new method, called Geometric Resampling (GR), is described and analyzed in the context of online combinatorial optimization under semi-bandit feedback, where a learner sequentially selects its actions from a combinatorial decision set so as to minimize its cumulative loss. In particular, we show that the well-known Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader (FPL) prediction method coupled with Geometric Resampling yields the fi…
We consider systems that require timely monitoring of sources over a communication network, where the cost of delayed information is unknown, time-varying and possibly adversarial. For the single source monitoring problem, we design algorithms that achieve sublinear regret compared to the best fixed policy in hindsight. For the multiple source scheduling problem, we design a new online learning algorithm called Follow-the-Perturbed-Whittle-Leader and show that it has low regret compared to the best fixed scheduling policy in hindsight, while remaining computationally feasible. The algorithm an…
