通过有缺陷的社会网络分析传播缺乏证据的医学
The Spread of Evidence-Poor Medicine via Flawed Social-Network Analysis
摘要：
统计数据的长期广泛滥用通常是无意的，而不是故意的。我们在克里斯塔基斯和福勒最近发表的一系列论文中发现了一些值得警惕的例子，这些论文提出了通过社交网络传播各种个人特征的统计论据，包括肥胖、戒烟、幸福和孤独。这些论文还断言，这种影响力延伸到社交网络中的三个分离度。我们将表明，这些结论并不来自克里斯塔基斯和福勒的统计分析。事实上，他们的研究甚至提供了一些证据，反对这种传播的存在。我们所揭露的错误的产生，部分原因是不仅作者没有充分审查所使用的统计程序背后的假设，而且评审者也没有充分审查。我们的例子是有启发性的，因为从业者享有很高的声誉，他们的结果受到了广泛的关注，发表他们研究的期刊是世界上最受尊敬的期刊之一。从我们报告的发表评论的困难中，我们得到了一个教育上的好处。我们讨论了这一事件的相关性，以了解统计素养和科学审查的作用，以及改革统计教育。
英文摘要：
The chronic widespread misuse of statistics is usually inadvertent, not intentional. We find cautionary examples in a series of recent papers by Christakis and Fowler that advance statistical arguments for the transmission via social networks of various personal characteristics, including obesity, smoking cessation, happiness, and loneliness. Those papers also assert that such influence extends to three degrees of separation in social networks. We shall show that these conclusions do not follow from Christakis and Fowler's statistical analyses. In fact, their studies even provide some evidence against the existence of such transmission. The errors that we expose arose, in part, because the assumptions behind the statistical procedures used were insufficiently examined, not only by the authors, but also by the reviewers. Our examples are instructive because the practitioners are highly reputed, their results have received enormous popular attention, and the journals that published their studies are among the most respected in the world. An educational bonus emerges from the difficulty we report in getting our critique published. We discuss the relevance of this episode to understanding statistical literacy and the role of scientific review, as well as to reforming statistics education.
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