意外的失败：平方公里阵列将难以窃听类人ETI
A Failure of Serendipity: the Square Kilometre Array will struggle to eavesdrop on Human-like ETI
摘要：
平方公里阵列（SKA）将在军用雷达和其他通信技术经常使用的频率范围内工作。已经证明，如果地外智能（ETIs）使用类似的技术进行通信，那么SKA应该能够检测到距离地球约100 pc（约300光年）的传输。然而，人类在上个世纪大大改善了通信技术，大大减少了信号泄漏，使地球变得“无线电安静”。如果外星人遵循与人类相同的模式，我们是否能够在他们变得无线电安静之前检测到他们的信号泄漏？我们调查这个问题，使用蒙特卡罗实现技术来模拟银河系中智能生命的生长和进化。我们表明，如果文明在本质上是“人”的，（也就是说，它们只有100年的“无线电噪音”，并且只能在100年的最大通信时间内用类似SKA的仪器检测到100 pc的彼此），那么这种文明偶然检测到彼此的概率很低。（~10^{-7}），远低于其他允许的专用通信技术（例如光学SETI或中微子通信）。
英文摘要：
The Square Kilometre Array (SKA) will operate in frequency ranges often used by military radar and other communications technology. It has been shown that if Extraterrestrial Intelligences (ETIs) communicate using similar technology, then the SKA should be able to detect such transmissions up to distances of ~100 pc (~300 light years) from Earth. However, Mankind has greatly improved its communications technology over the last century, dramatically reducing signal leakage and making the Earth "radio quiet". If ETIs follow the same pattern as the human race, will we be able to detect their signal leakage before they become radio quiet? We investigate this question using Monte Carlo Realisation techniques to simulate the growth and evolution of intelligent life in the Galaxy. We show that if civilisations are "human" in nature (i.e. they are only "radio loud" for ~100 years, and can only detect each other with an SKA-like instrument out to 100 pc, within a maximum communication time of 100 years), then the probability for such civilisations accidentally detecting each other is low (~10^{-7}), much lower than if other, dedicated communication techniques are permissible (e.g. optical SETI or neutrino communication).
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
