经济物理学十五年:忧虑、希望与前景
Fifteen years of econophysics: worries, hopes and prospects
摘要:
这篇周年纪念论文是一个机会,回顾一些事件,塑造了制度经济物理学。但是,在这些关于经济物理学在过去15年中的演变的思考中,我们也表达了一些担忧。我们主要担心的是放弃简单性要求。自从大约三个世纪前伽利略的开创性实验以来,物理学家的巨大成功在很大程度上归功于他们能够将复杂的现象分解为更简单的现象。请记住,第一次观察到电流的影响是由亚历山德罗伏打(1745-1827)在青蛙的腿上!显然,要想理解这一观察结果,必须将其分解为几个独立的效应。如今,随着计算机能够处理大量的数据,并模拟任何随机过程,无论多么复杂,不再有任何真正的需要,这样的搜索简单。既然可以在全球范围内处理复杂的现象,为什么还要花时间和精力试图分解它们呢?然而,在这条新路上,有几个绊脚石。这样的全局数学描述能导致真正的理解吗?它们是否产生了可以在其他地方使用的积木,从而使我们的知识和理解以累积的方式增长?经济物理学是否也应该采用“全球化”的观点,这种观点已经得到了过去十年中涌现出的众多“复杂性部门”的认可、发展和传播?
英文摘要:
This anniversary paper is an occasion to recall some of the events that shaped institutional econophysics. But in these thoughts about the evolution of econophysics in the last 15 years we also express some concerns. Our main worry concerns the relinquishment of the simplicity requirement. Ever since the groundbreaking experiments of Galileo some three centuries ago, the great successes of physicists were largely due to the fact that they were able to decompose complex phenomena into simpler ones. Remember that the first observation of the effects of an electrical current was made by Alessandro Volta (1745-1827) on the leg of a frog! Clearly, to make sense this observation had to be broken down into several separate effects. Nowadays, with computers being able to handle huge amounts of data and to simulate any stochastic process no matter how complicated, there is no longer any real need for such a search for simplicity. Why should one spend time and effort trying to break up complicated phenomena when it is possible to handle them globally? On this new road there are several stumbling blocks, however. Do such global mathematical descriptions lead to a real understanding? Do they produce building blocks which can be used elsewhere and thus make our knowledge and comprehension to grow in a cumulative way? Should econophysics also adopt the "globalized" perspective that has been endorsed, developed and spread by the numerous "Complexity Departments" which sprang up during the last decade?
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