当前最小值是否验证（或无效）周期预测方法？
Does the current minimum validate (or invalidate) cycle prediction methods?
摘要：
这个深度，延长的太阳极小期和第24周期的缓慢开始强烈表明，第24周期将是一个小周期。各种各样的太阳活动周期预测技术已经被应用于预测第24周的振幅，结果大相径庭。目前的情况和新的观察表明，一些高度重视的技术现在似乎有可疑的效用。地磁前兆在过去是可靠的，可以用12个周期的数据进行检验。在三个主要的地磁前兆中，只有一个（地磁活动的最低水平）表明一个小周期。太阳的极场强度也被用来成功地预测最近三个周期。目前的弱极场是一个小周期的指示。发电机模型第一次被用来预测太阳活动周期的大小，但根据模型和数据同化的不同，预测结果相反。然而，表面纬向流的新测量结果表明，在接近周期24最小值时的流速明显快于周期23最小值。在两个发电机预测中，更快的纬向流应该给出更短的周期23和更强的极场。这表明，这些发电机模型还没有准备好预测太阳活动周期。
英文摘要：
This deep, extended solar minimum and the slow start to Cycle 24 strongly suggest that Cycle 24 will be a small cycle. A wide array of solar cycle prediction techniques have been applied to predicting the amplitude of Cycle 24 with widely different results. Current conditions and new observations indicate that some highly regarded techniques now appear to have doubtful utility. Geomagnetic precursors have been reliable in the past and can be tested with 12 cycles of data. Of the three primary geomagnetic precursors only one (the minimum level of geomagnetic activity) suggests a small cycle. The Sun's polar field strength has also been used to successfully predict the last three cycles. The current weak polar fields are indicative of a small cycle. For the first time, dynamo models have been used to predict the size of a solar cycle but with opposite predictions depending on the model and the data assimilation. However, new measurements of the surface meridional flow indicate that the flow was substantially faster on the approach to Cycle 24 minimum than at Cycle 23 minimum. In both dynamo predictions a faster meridional flow should have given a shorter cycle 23 with stronger polar fields. This suggests that these dynamo models are not yet ready for solar cycle prediction.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
